Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Oregon poll finds that Hilary Clinton has widespread support against every potential Republican candidate included in the poll.
A majority of Oregon voters say they would vote for Clinton in 2016 regardless of the opponent and no Republican breaks 40%. Clinton leads Jeb Bush 51/36, Chris Christie 51/34, Ted Cruz 52/37, Rand Paul 51/39, and Mike Huckabee 51/39. Clinton picks up a majority of moderates in each of these potential races, as well as at least 10% of those that identify as somewhat conservative.
“Oregon used to always be on the list of sleeper swing states,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Barack Obama won it twice by double digit margins and it looks like that run of Democratic dominance will continue if Hillary Clinton ends up deciding to run in 2016.”
A minimum wage hike garners pretty wide support throughout the state, as 59% support raising it to $10 an hour compared to only 34% opposed. It gets a majority of support amongst liberals and moderates, and even 32% of those that identify as somewhat conservative support raising the minimum wage. In what appears to be a much more contentious issue, 46% of Oregonians support letting drivers pump their own gas, while 44% oppose such freedom.
PPP also finds that while more voters are Oregon fans, Oregon State fans seem to have more prevalent opinions on their coaches. 35% of voters identify as Oregon fans to 29% who align with Oregon State. Among Duck fans, 49% approve of the job that football coach Mark Helfrich is doing with 4% disapproving and 47% unsure. Basketball coach Dana Altman has less support, with 37% approving, 7% disapproving, and 56% of Oregon fans unsure of his job performance. Among Beaver fans, football coach Mike Riley enjoys 55% approval and 10% disapproval of his job with only 35% unsure. On the basketball side of things, 50% of Oregon State fans support the recent firing of Michelle Obama’s brother Craig Robinson with 15% opposed.
PPP surveyed 956 registered voters, including 375 Republican primary voters, from May 22th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Wyden’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 per hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 59%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Would you support or oppose letting drivers in
Oregon pump their own gas?
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Oregon’s football uniforms?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be more an
Oregon or Oregon State fan?
Oregon…………………………………………………… 35%
Oregon State ………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q11 (Q11-12 asked only of Oregon fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Mark Helfrich
is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dana
Altman is doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q13 (Q13-14 asked only of Oregon St. fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Mike Riley is
doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q14 Do you support or oppose the decision to fire
Craig Robinson as basketball coach?
Support ………………………………………………….. 50%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q15 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles
Dodgers, New York Yankees, Oakland
Athletics, San Francisco Giants, and Seattle
Mariners, what is your favorite baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 3%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 6%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 9%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 7%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 5%
A’s…………………………………………………………. 3%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 6%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 31%
Another team / Don’t have a favorite…………… 30%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the television show Portlandia?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 24%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 4%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 3%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 3%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 10%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%