Polls

Ohio, Wisconsin voters narrowly support tax deal

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. – Voters in Ohio and Wisconsin both support the tax deal President Obama struck with Congressional Republicans last week by a narrow margin, although in each place that favor falls short of a majority.  In Ohio voters support it by a 45/32 margin and in Wisconsin it’s a nearly identical 44/34 spread.

This issue is quite unusual in that there is very little difference along partisan lines in how voters respond to the deal.  In Ohio 48% of Republicans, 47% of independents, and 42% of Democrats support it.  In Wisconsin 52% of Republicans, 42% of Democrats, and 39% of independents support it.  It’s not like many hot button issues since Barack Obama took office where Democrats are all on one side and Republicans all on the other.

Voters are split pretty evenly three ways when it comes to the question of whether Obama made too many concessions to Republicans with the deal, not enough, or the right amount.  In Ohio 33% think he made too many concessions, 32% think he made the right amount, and 28% think he didn’t make enough.  In Wisconsin 34% think made too many, 32% think he made the right amount, and 28% think he didn’t make enough.

The overall impact of the deal on Obama’s political standing is unclear.  Obama’s approval rating in Ohio is 42%, up from 38% before the election, and in Wisconsin it’s 47%, up from 37% before the election.  He has particularly seen an improvement with independents and you could make the argument that’s a show of appreciation for his willingness to work across party lines and compromise on this issue but you could also argue his improvement is simply a function of moving away from the 2010 electorate that wasn’t very friendly to Democrats.

“The tax deal is probably a wash for Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Some Democrats like it, some don’t.  Some Republicans like it, some don’t.  Some independents like it, some don’t.  Overall that probably means some voters like Obama more because of it and some like him less because of it.

PPP surveyed 702 Wisconsin voters and 510 Ohio voters from December 10th to December 12th.  For Ohio the survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3% and for Wisconsin the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.7%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Ohio Survey Results:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Do you support or oppose the tax deal
President Obama made with Congressional
Republicans this week?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 Do you think President Obama made too many
concessions to Republicans with his tax deal
this week, not enough concessions to
Republicans, or about the right amount of
concessions to Republicans?
Too Many ……………………………………………….. 33%
Not Enough…………………………………………….. 28%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Wisconsin Survey Results:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you support or oppose the tax deal
President Obama made with Congressional
Republicans this week?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q3 Do you think President Obama made too many
concessions to Republicans with his tax deal
this week, not enough concessions to
Republicans, or about the right amount of
concessions to Republicans?
Too much ……………………………………………….. 34%
Too little …………………………………………………. 28%
About right ……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%

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