Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s numbers have rebounded sharply in Wisconsin since the last time PPP polled there in October 2011. Obama now has a +8 job approval rating, with 52% of voters approving and 44% disapproving. In October 2011 his numbers were almost the reverse at 44/51. Obama leads all his Republican challengers, most by double digits: he leads Mitt Romney by 14 points, 53-39 (in October he led Romney by just 3 points, 46-43); he leads Newt Gingrich by 18 points, 55-37; and he leads Ron Paul by 16 points, 53-37. Rick Santorum performs best against the President – Obama leads him 49-43.
All the Republican presidential challengers are suffering from negative favorability ratings of 50% of more. Santorum’s rating among Wisconsin voters comes in at 37% favorable and 50% unfavorable, and it only gets worse from there: Romney is at 25/61, Ron Paul is at 23/59, and Newt Gingrich is at 19/68.
“Wisconsin was a swing state in 2000 and 2004,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But in 2008 it shifted to being safely Democratic and it looks like that trend is going to continue in 2012.”
Even among just Republican voters, only Rick Santorum is viewed favorably by a majority of voters in his own party with a 67/18 rating. The three other Republican candidates have worse ratings among Wisconsin Republicans: Newt Gingrich is at 35/48, Mitt Romney is at 49/34 and Ron Paul is at 29/53.
Perhaps not surprisingly based on his high favorability ratings, Santorum leads the Republican primary field with 43%. Mitt Romney takes second with 27%, Newt Gingrich gets 10% and Ron Paul 8%. If Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race, nearly all his supporters would move to Santorum – Santorum’s vote total would expand to 51%, while Romney’s would stay basically the same at 28%, and Paul would stay at 8%.
PPP surveyed 900 Wisconsin voters and 556 Republican primary voters from February 23rd to 26th. The margin of error for the general election survey is +/-3.27% and the margin of error for the Republican primary survey is +/-4.16% . This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 68%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 71%
Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 27%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 38%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 62%
Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 49%
Are not …………………………………………………… 51%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q14 Are you or is anyone in your household a
member of a labor union?
Yes………………………………………………………… 17%
No …………………………………………………………. 83%
