Polls

Obama opens up 7-point lead in Wisconsin

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest
Wisconsin poll finds Barack Obama opening back up a wide lead in the state. He
has 52% to 45% for Mitt Romney.  This is the largest lead we’ve found for
Obama in the state since February. Our previous two polls had shown just a
single point separating the two candidates.

One thing that’s definitely not helping Romney is his comments about the
‘47%’ this week. 86% of voters say they’re familiar with what Romney said and
53% consider his comments to have been inappropriate, compared to only 40% who
feel they were appropriate. 39% of independent voters say Romney’s comments
made them less likely to vote for him compared to only 20% who consider them a
positive, and Obama’s now opened up a 52-43 lead with independents.

The movement toward Obama in Wisconsin isn’t all about Romney flubbing
though. Obama’s on pretty solid ground in his own right with 52% of voters
approving of him to 47% who disapprove. That’s up a net 9 points from a month
ago when his approval spread was 46/50.

“Wisconsin’s looking like much less of a swing state than it did a month or
even a week ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters
there are warming up to Obama, and Romney’s not making a terribly good
impression right now.”

Another major development in Wisconsin is that Democrats are starting to
match the enthusiasm level of the Republicans, something they weren’t able to
do in the recall election in June. 65% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’
about voting in the elections this fall compared to 63% of Republicans.

It was initially thought that Paul Ryan could be a big boost for the GOP
ticket in Wisconsin, but that’s not really proving to be the case. Voters in
the state are closely divided on him with 48% rating him favorably to 47% with
an unfavorable opinion. That’s slightly down from a 49/45 spread on our August
Wisconsin poll.

PPP surveyed 842 likely Wisconsin voters on
September 18th and 19th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q7 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 58%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 13%

Q8 Are you familiar with comments Mitt Romney
has made about the ‘47%’, or not?
Familiar with them……………………………………. 86%
Not familiar with them ………………………………. 14%

Q9 Mitt Romney recently said, “There are 47
percent of the people who will vote for the
president no matter what. All right? There are
47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government
has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to
food, to housing, to you-name-it, that that’s an
entitlement. And the government should give it
to them. And they will vote for this president no
matter what…. These are people who pay no
income tax.” Do you think Romney’s comments
were appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 40%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do these comments make you more or less
likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or do they not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 26%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 39%
Don’t make a difference ……………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q11 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 52%
He should not………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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