Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama opens what is now effectively the general election contest with a three-point lead over his nearly-crowned opponent Mitt Romney in PPP’s latest national poll, 49-46. Both parties are coalescing around their standard-bearers, with Obama up from 79% to 84% of Democrats in the last month, and Romney up from 78% to 82% of the GOP. Obama leads 52-43 with independents, up from 48-42.
Romney’s favorability numbers are still poor, but they have already begun to rebound since it became clear he would be the nominee. In March, only a third of American voters saw him favorably and 58% unfavorably. That is now 39-51. Republicans have quickly joined ranks, moving from only 49-42 to 67-22. Independents have improved their view of him as well, from 29-58 to 36-50, but that is balanced out by Democrats growing even more sour on their autumn foe (20-71 to 14-79).
Speculation about Romney’s potential running mate ramped up almost as soon as Rick Santorum dropped out of the GOP primary battle, and PPP finds that Santorum would be one of the only running mates that would immediately help Romney at this point. A unity ticket would bring the contest to a 48-46 edge for Obama, as would a matchup featuring fellow social conservative Mike Huckabee on stage with Romney.
But the option that would make the national popular vote tightest would be Chris Christie. In that case, the Obama-Biden and Romney-Christie tickets would tie at 47% apiece. Jeb Bush would make it a one-point contest, with Obama edging Romney 48-47.
On the other end of the spectrum are the potential vice presidents who would hurt Romney’s odds at the outset. They are led by Sarah Palin. Obama-Biden would top Romney-Palin, 50-43. “It” kid, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, would also drop the GOP ticket three points to 49-43. House budget author Paul Ryan would do almost as poorly as the #2, with Obama up 48-43. Ron Paul’s presence would make Romney lag, 48-44.
“As expected, Republicans are consolidating around Romney as Democrats rally to Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 900 American voters from April 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q18 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Jeb
Bush, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Bush …………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q19 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Chris
Christie, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Christie ……………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q20 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Mike
Huckabee, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Huckabee ………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q21 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Sarah
Palin, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Palin …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q22 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Ron
Paul, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Paul ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q23 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Marco
Rubio, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Rubio………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q24 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Paul
Ryan, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Ryan…………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q25 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Rick
Santorum, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Santorum…………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Obama?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q28 Who do you think would make a better
President: Michelle Obama or Ann Romney?
Michelle Obama………………………………………. 47%
Ann Romney …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q29 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q30 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q32 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q33 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q34 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
