Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled Wisconsin in May, Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state has dove 14 points on the margin, from 52% approving and 44% disapproving to 44-51. Of the 45 states in which PPP has measured the president’s approval rating, only 18 see him worse than Wisconsin. Three months ago, Obama led Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by 12 points, 51-39, just a little tighter than his 14-point victory over John McCain three years ago. But the president’s margin over Romney is now only 47-42.
Against the other four Republicans tested, the president is still in solid shape, leading Rick Perry, 50-40; Michele Bachmann, 51-39; Sarah Palin, 52-40; and Herman Cain, 50-36. By this measure, even Cain matches or exceeds McCain’s performance, but poll respondents report voting for Obama by only 10 points, so in this slightly less-favorable-than-2008 electorate, only Romney and Perry match McCain.
The president is in a little stronger shape in Iowa, with a 45-48 approval rating, down seven points from May’s 49-45. But they still prefer him to the Republicans traversing their state now. Romney is now down ten points, 49-39, almost identical to his 49-40 deficit in May. That is exactly McCain’s loss margin and one point worse than the self-reported vote. Obama also leads Perry, 51-38; native Bachmann, 51-34; Cain, 51-33 (50-32 in May); and Palin, 54-33 (55-35).
“Iowa and Wisconsin both look like they should remain in Barack Obama’s column next year rather than reverting to the swing state status they enjoyed in 2000 and 2004,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Wisconsin looks like it will at least be closer than it was in 2008 but it doesn’t bode well for the GOP that in Iowa, where its candidates are getting the most exposure, voters appear ready to vote for Obama by a similar margin to last time.”
PPP surveyed 830 Wisconsin voters, with a +/- 3.4% margin of error, from August 12th to 14th, and 798 Iowa voters, with a +/- 3.5% margin of error, from August 19th to 21st. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Iowa Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 11%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Wisconsin Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Do you think that corporations are people or
not?
They are people………………………………………. 35%
They are not……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
