Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama won Minnesota by about ten points over John McCain two years ago. At this early point in the 2012 cycle, PPP finds that the candidate who comes closest to beating him is not the one who would like to ride his record from two terms as the state’s governor to the White House. In fact, it is the same candidate who comes closest in his own two native states—nearby Michigan and far-away Massachusetts—as well as nationally and in a number of other states: Mitt Romney. But even Romney comes no closer than five points, and Obama tops the candidates other than Romney and Tim Pawlenty by double digits.
Pawlenty can only muster 43% to Obama’s 51%, which essentially mirrors the governor’s 43-53 job approval rating as he prepares to leave office. Meanwhile, Romney holds Obama to 47% and gets 42% himself. Mike Huckabee lags, 40-50; Newt Gingrich, 38-51; and Sarah Palin, frequently bringing up the rear, 36-54.
As in Michigan, the president has his base almost universally behind him, earning 92% (against Romney) to 95% (Palin and Pawlenty) of Democrats’ votes. But no Republican can do better than 90% of the GOP (Pawlenty); Palin gets only 76%. Obama also wins independents by two (Romney) to 25 points (Palin).
Obama is not terribly popular in the state, with a 49-46 job performance grade, but he outdoes any of the GOP hopefuls. With a 32-42 favorability rating, Romney is essentially as well liked as Pawlenty but not quite as personally popular as Huckabee, who posts a 37-40 mark. As usual, by far the least popular candidates are Gingrich (30-52) and Palin (35-60). Romney has the worst numbers with GOP voters among that party’s contenders, but he ties Huckabee for the best with independents. And even though Republicans may not personally like the two men the best, they still are more ready to vote for them than Palin or Gingrich.
“Minnesota went only narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004 before Obama broke the state open in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like 2012 is more likely to be a repeat of 2008 than a return to the competitiveness of earlier in the decade.”
PPP surveyed 949 Minnesota voters on December 4th and 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tim
Pawlenty’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
