Raleigh, N.C. – Virginia Foxx
tops the wish list of North Carolina Republicans for who they’d like as their
Senate candidate next year: 17% pick her to 14% for Sue Myrick, 13% for Patrick
McHenry, 11% for Renee Ellmers, 9% for George Holding, 6% for Richard Hudson,
4% for Mark Meadows, and 2% for Thom Tillis. 25% say that they prefer someone
else or are unsure.
Foxx is at the head of the line because of her appeal to the ‘very
conservative’ wing of the party. 21% of those voters prefer her to 17% for
Myrick and 12% for McHenry. She has very strong support in the Triad. Moderate
voters prefer McHenry with 14% picking him to 12% for Foxx and 10% for Myrick.
He has strong support in the western part of the state.
It’s clear at this point that Republicans really don’t have any potential
candidates with much of a statewide profile. The highest name recognition any
of these folks has is Sue Myrick, and even she’s at just 54%.
Kay Hagan leads all of these potential Republican foes at this point. Sue
Myrick is the only who comes particularly close, trailing 45/44. Hagan has at
least a 6 point advantage over everyone else we tested: 45/39 over Renee
Ellmers, 48/40 over Patrick McHenry, 48/39 over George Holding, 49/39 over
Virginia Foxx, and 48/38 over Tillis.
Hagan has a 44% approval rating, with 43% of voters disapproving of her.
That close division over her job performance mirrors what we’ve seen for her
pretty much since she took office, and it also mirrors what we saw for Richard
Burr at this time four years ago.
“Republicans should have a decent chance against Kay Hagan in 2014,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not clear whether
they have any strong potential contenders- most of their prospective candidates
are pretty unknown and start out trailing Hagan by wide margins.”
PPP surveyed 578 North Carolina voters,
including an oversample of 462 usual Republican primary voters, from December 6th
to 9th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.1%, and
+/-4.6% for the GOP portion. This poll
was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sue Myrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q7 Given the choices of Renee Ellmers, Virginia
Foxx, George Holding, Richard Hudson,
Patrick McHenry, Mark Meadows, Sue Myrick,
and Thom Tillis, who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate in
2014?
Renee Ellmers ……. .11%
Virginia Foxx ………. .17%
George Holding…… . 9%
Richard Hudson ….. . 6%
Patrick McHenry …. .13%
Mark Meadows …… . 4%
Sue Myrick …………. .14%
Thom Tillis …………. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….25%
Q8 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul,
Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to
see as the GOP candidate for President in
2016?
Jeb Bush……………. . 9%
Chris Christie ……… .10%
Mike Huckabee …… .15%
Sarah Palin ………… . 5%
Rand Paul ………….. . 6%
Condoleezza Rice.. . 9%
Marco Rubio ………. .21%
Paul Ryan ………….. .12%
Rick Santorum……. . 5%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Olcder than 65 ………………………………………… 24%
Q12 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 25%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sue Myrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican George
Holding, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
George Holding……………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Patrick
McHenry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Patrick McHenry ……………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Sue
Myrick, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Sue Myrick……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q20 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 23%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
