Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Patty Murray and perennial Republican candidate Dino Rossi are the far-and-away favorites to survive the “jungle” primary in Washington state. But without the Republican vote split, Murray’s double-digit lead over Rossi in that multi-candidate contest shrinks to only three points in the most likely fall matchup.
Murray bests Rossi, 47% to 33%, in the primary, with Republicans Clint Didier and Paul Akers at 10% and 4%, respectively, and others at 1%. Only 6% are undecided.
Murray would top Rossi, 49-46, in November. There are nearly as many independents as Democrats in Washington, and Rossi has a 53-41 lead with them. Each candidate has nearly unanimous support from his respective party base, Murray with 91% of the 36%-plurality Democrats, and Rossi with 88% of the 29%-minority Republicans.
Washington voters break even on Murray’s job performance, 46-45, but that seemingly mediocre rating puts her in good company in this toxic political environment for sitting elected officials. Of the 14 senators up for re-election that PPP has polled in 2010, only five—Barbara Mikulski, Richard Shelby, Chuck Grassley, Jim DeMint, and barely, David Vitter—have better approval ratings in their states, and all but Vitter are favored to win by healthy margins, if not landslides.
By contrast, voters are slightly down on Rossi, 43-48, with Democrats, by an 84-78 margin, holding more negative views than Republicans do positive ones. However, while independents disapprove of Murray’s job performance, 52-38, they like Rossi, 47-40.
“Dino Rossi has come close to becoming Governor twice, and he’ll likely bring this one down to the wire. But while Washington is known for its independence and is frequently in the swing-state category, it has become bluer in recent elections,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,204 Washington voters from July 27th to August 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Patty
Murray’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 46%
Disapprove………… 45%
Not Sure……………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Akers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 76%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Didier?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 56%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dino Rossi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 The candidates in the primary election for US
Senate include Paul Akers, Clint Didier, Patty
Murray, and Dino Rossi. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Paul Akers ……………………………………………… 4%
Clint Didier ……………………………………………… 10%
Patty Murray …………………………………………… 47%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 33%
One of the other candidates………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino
Rossi, who would you vote for?
Patty Murray …………………………………………… 49%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Clint
Didier, who would you vote for?
Patty Murray …………………………………………… 50%
Clint Didier ……………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
