Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has not polled Connecticut in almost a year, but the contest between the two almost certain U.S. Senate nominees has not budged an inch. Democrat Chris Murphy led Republican Linda McMahon by a 50-43 margin among registered voters last September. He now leads 50-42 among likely voters in this fall’s election.
Murphy has the support of 82% of his party, which makes up a 41% plurality of the electorate. He sees only 10% of Democrats defect across the aisle, while pulling almost twice as much of the GOP vote. McMahon is only keeping it close because she has a 17-point lead (53-36) among the 30% of voters who claim to be independents, who are slightly more numerous than Republicans. In a sense, there is a reverse gender gap, with Murphy up 20 with McMahon’s gender and McMahon up seven with Murphy’s.
Murphy outdoes his Democratic primary opponent Susan Bysiewicz among both men and women. She would therefore lead McMahon by only three points (45-42) and trail the other Republican, Christopher Shays, by the same margin (40-43). Shays lags behind Murphy by nine (38-47).
With the primaries two weeks away, it is nearly impossible for anyone but Murphy and McMahon to emerge victorious. Shays has really hurt himself in recent weeks by refusing to endorse McMahon in the general election. His favorability spread among the base is down from an already paltry 36-29 last September to 37-40 now, and he trails McMahon by 48 points (68-20), a decline from a 35-point deficit (54-19) in a four-candidate field in the previous poll.
On the Democratic side, Murphy has a smaller lead of 17 points (49-32), but that is up from six (39-33) in a three-candidate slate last fall. Like Shays, Bysiewicz is disliked by her base after some false attacks on Murphy’s record. Her favorability numbers are down from 38-30 to 36-38 since the last poll.
“With solid leads in both the primary and general Chris Murphy is likely to be the next Senator from Connecticut,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 771 likely Connecticut voters, including an oversample of 400 likely voters in each the Democratic and Republican primaries, from July 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the general electorate sample is +/-3.5%, and +/-4.9% for each the Democratic and GOP portions. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susan Bysiewicz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christopher Shays?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Susan Bysiewicz and Republican
Linda McMahon, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 45%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda
McMahon, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 50%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Susan Bysiewicz and Republican
Christopher Shays, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 40%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican
Christopher Shays, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 47%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christopher Shays?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Senate are
Linda McMahon and Christopher Shays. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 68%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 44%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susan Bysiewicz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 The Democratic candidates for Senate are
Susan Bysiewicz and Chris Murphy. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 32%
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 33%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 61%
Man……………………………………………………….. 39%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%