Raleigh, N.C. – Former Governor Marc Racicot and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin are preferred by Montana’s Republican primary voters to lead the ticket in 2012, but by the thinnest of margins over Denny Rehberg and Mike Huckabee.
Racicot is not currently in the picture, but is certainly a heavy hitter who could raise a lot of money if he decides to get back into elective politics by challenging Jon Tester for Senate. He gets the support of 40% when his party’s voters are asked who they would prefer as their Senate nominee. Close behind is more likely candidate Denny Rehberg, at 37%. No one else, including likely contenders Neil Livingstone and Steve Daines, gets more than 5%. Rehberg is actually better known and much better liked, with a 75-14 favorability rating to Racicot’s not-too-shabby 58-12. The two men split the 74% who call themselves conservative, with Rehberg at 39% to Racicot at 38%. But Racicot pulls ahead with his 49-30 edge with the 24% share of moderates.
When it comes to the presidential race, Republicans are now ready to select perhaps their least electable choice to face the president. Palin has enormous favor with her base, but as yesterday’s release shows, she is in the basement with Democrats and independents, and therefore leads President Obama by only two points in this heavily Republican state. She now pulls 23% in the primary, but breathing down her neck is Huckabee at 22%. Huckabee is much better liked across the aisle, and would put Montana’s three electoral votes out of reach for Obama. Following the two leaders are Newt Gingrich at 16% and a candidate almost as electable as Huckabee, Mitt Romney, at only 12%, barely ahead of Ron Paul’s 9%. John Thune, from bordering South Dakota, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitch Daniels get support in the low single digits, and 10% are either undecided or prefer someone unnamed. Unlike in other states, Palin actually has a wide lead with moderates, and only 10% of them prefer Romney, who usually cleans up with centrists.
“Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are racking up Republican support in a lot of rural, blue-collar red and swing states, but the only one of the two who has crossover appeal and gives President Obama a run for his money is Huckabee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 545 usual Montana Republican primary voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries?
Democratic primaries ……………………………….. 0%
Republican primaries ……………………………….. 100%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 0%
Q2 Between Denny Rehberg, Steve Daines, Neil
Livingstone, and Marc Racicot who would you
most like to see as the Republican Senate
nominee in 2012?
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 37%
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 5%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 4%
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 40%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 58%
Unfavorable……….. 21%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 71%
Unfavorable……….. 16%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 76%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 58%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Denny Rehberg?
Favorable ………….. 75%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable ………….. 10%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not sure ……………. 77%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Neil Livingstone?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 8%
Not sure ……………. 88%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Racicot?
Favorable ………….. 58%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 30%
Q12 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
