Polls

Momentum shifts against NC marriage amendment

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Momentum is turning against North Carolina’s proposed marriage amendment.  PPP’s newest poll finds only 54% of voters in the state planning to support it, while 40% are opposed. This is the lowest level of support PPP has found in monthly polling of the amendment since last October. When PPP first polled on it six months ago 61% supported it with only 34% opposed, so its current 14 point lead has been cut almost in half from the 27 point advantage it started out with.

There is some reason to think a huge upset in two weeks is within the realm of possibility. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, with only 44% opposed to any recognition for same sex couples. The proposed amendment would ban both gay marriage and civil unions, but voters continue to be confused about that. Just 36% correctly identify that it would ban both while 26% think it bans only gay marriage, 10% think it actually legalizes gay marriage, and 27% admit that they don’t know what it does.

When voters are informed that the proposed amendment would preclude both marriage and civil unions for gay couples only 38% continue to support it with 46% in opposition. Voters obviously will be more tuned into the amendment debate over the final two weeks of the campaign than they have been to date, particularly as the against side’s tv ads hit the air, and it seems quite possible that as voters become more and more informed about the amendment they will continue to move more and more against it.

The main movement over the last month has been with Democratic voters. Previously they were almost evenly divided on the amendment but now they’re moving against it with only 38% still in support and 56% opposed. A big part of that is a shift among black voters. They still support it by a 51/39 margin, but that’s well down from 61/30 on our a poll a month ago.

“Passage of the marriage amendment is looking like less and less of a sure thing,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The more voters learn about it the less inclined they are to support it.”

PPP surveyed 1,139 likely primary voters from April 20th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election next month, or will
you not vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 51%
Republican primary………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 54%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you think that a ‘yes’ vote on Amendment
One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay
marriage, or are you not sure?
Bans just gay marriage …………………………….. 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions …….. 36%
Legalizes gay marriage…………………………….. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q5 If you knew that Amendment One banned both
gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
‘yes’ or ‘no’?
Would vote ‘yes’………………………………………. 38%
Would vote ‘no’ ……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%

Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%

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