Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Texas poll finds a mix of good news and bad news for Ted Cruz following his evolution into a major national figure over the last few months.
The good news for Cruz is that he’s the overwhelming top choice of Texas Republicans to be their Presidential candidate in 2016. He gets 32% to 13% for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 10% for Rand Paul, 6% for Bobby Jindal, 5% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and an incredibly weak on the home front Rick Perry. Cruz’s 19 point lead over the GOP field is up from 12 in late June.
Although Cruz has abysmal favorability numbers in most of the rest of the country, his net approval rating in Texas is the same as it was in June. 47% of voters approve of him to 41% who disapprove. It was 42/36 last time around so he’s better known now but as his profile has risen equal numbers of voters have grown to approve or disapprove of him.
And then there’s the bad news. 50% of Texans say that Cruz has been bad for the state’s reputation to only 37% who think he’s been good for it. Among independents those numbers are even worse with 58% feeling he’s hurt the state’s image to only 36% who think he’s been helpful. And even in Texas 56% of voters say they opposed the government shutdown to only 38% who were supportive of it.
Hypothetical Presidential match ups with Hillary Clinton for 2016 are a little bit closer than you might expect for Texas- and the Republicans who do better are the ones from out of state. Jeb Bush polls the strongest against Clinton, leading her 49/42. Chris Christie does next best, leading 44/39, followed by Rand Paul with a 48/44 advantage. Cruz leads Clinton only 48/45, and Rick Perry actually trails her 47/45.
“Texas voters aren’t too keen on either a Ted Cruz or Rick Perry run for the White House,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Their match ups with Hillary Clinton would represent the closest Presidential race in Texas since 1992.”
PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters and an oversample of 388 Republican primary voters from November 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.4% and for the Republican survey it’s +/-5.0%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ted
Cruz’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q2 Do you support or oppose Congress shutting
down major activities of the federal government
as a way to stop the health care law from being
put into place?
Support ………………………………………………….. 38%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Would you be less likely or more likely to
support Ted Cruz in the future because he led
the effort to support shutting down major
activities of the federal government as a way to
stop the health care law from being put into
place, or does it not make a difference?
Less likely ………………………………………………. 42%
More likely………………………………………………. 35%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you think Ted Cruz has been good or bad
for Texas’ reputation outside Texas?
Good……………………………………………………… 37%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 15%
He should not………………………………………….. 73%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Do you think Ted Cruz should run for President
in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 29%
He should not………………………………………….. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Who do you think has done a better job this
year: Congress or the Houston Astros?
Congress ……………………………………………….. 10%
The Astros ……………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 Are you a fan of Baylor, Houston, Southern
Methodist, Texas, Texas A & M, TCU, Texas
Tech, UTEP, or another school?
Baylor ……………………………………………………. 8%
Houston …………………………………………………. 10%
Southern Methodist………………………………….. 2%
Texas …………………………………………………….. 20%
A & M…………………………………………………….. 22%
TCU ………………………………………………………. 4%
Texas Tech……………………………………………… 5%
UTEP…………………………………………………….. 3%
Another school/Not a fan ………………………….. 26%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Johnny Manziel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robert Griffin III?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q16 Do you have a more favorable opinion of
Johnny Manziel or Robert Griffin III?
Johnny Manziel ……………………………………….. 23%
Robert Griffin III ………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q17 Would you say you are more of a Dallas
Cowboys or Houston Texans fan?
Cowboys………………………………………………… 47%
Texans …………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q18 Would you say you are more of a Dallas
Mavericks, Houston Rockets, or San Antonio
Spurs fan?
Mavericks……………………………………………….. 22%
Rockets………………………………………………….. 21%
Spurs …………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q23 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q24 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum,
who would you most like to see as the GOP
candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 13%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 13%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 32%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 6%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 5%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor next
year were David Dewhurst, Dan Patrick, Jerry
Patterson, and Todd Staples, who would you
vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 37%
Dan Patrick …………………………………………….. 18%
Jerry Patterson ……………………………………….. 10%
Todd Staples…………………………………………… 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 35%
