Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska. 37% of voters say they’ll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski.
Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one. Voters aren’t very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.
How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? It’s because 92% of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56% of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31% of them are going for Lisa Murkowski.
The high number of voters who like McAdams, dislike Miller, and are voting for Murkowski place the race in a whole different light than has been thought of the last few months. Murkowski’s campaign, rather than propping herself up at the expense of Miller, may actually end up propping Miller up at the expense of McAdams.
It appears that Murkowski will lose this race. There are 2 main reasons for that. The first is that she retained little goodwill from Republicans after deciding to make an independent bid. Only 27% of GOP voters are planning to vote for her on Tuesday, down from 31% from a PPP poll earlier in October.
The second reason Murkowski’s headed for a loss is that she failed to dominate with independents. She is slightly ahead with them, getting 34% to 32% for McAdams and 31% for Miller. But they’re not providing her with a strong base of support the way Democrats are for McAdams and Republicans for Miller.
“This race has been so unpredictable I wouldn’t write off any of the candidates yet,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Joe Miller certainly looks like the favorite but the biggest surprise in Alaska this year would be if there wasn’t a surprise.”
PPP surveyed 1,539 likely Alaska voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 In the election for US Senate will you vote for
Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe
Miller, nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter,
nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos,
Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to
write in Lisa Murkowski, or are you planning to
write in someone else?
Scott McAdams……………………………………….. 30%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 37%
Tim Carter………………………………………………. 0%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 0%
Fredrick Haase ……………………………………….. 0%
Lisa Murkowski ……………………………………….. 30%
Someone else…………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott McAdams?
Favorable ………….. 50%
Unfavorable……….. 30%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 59%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 37%
Disapprove………… 53%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q5 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Ethan Berkowitz and Republican Sean Parnell.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Ethan Berkowitz………………………………………. 43%
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ethan Berkowitz?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 51%
Disapprove………… 35%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 58%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q11 Do you want Sarah Palin to run for President in
2012?
Yes…………………… 18%
No ……………………. 70%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 21%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 16%
Q18 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 14%
No …………………………………………………………. 86%
