Raleigh, N.C. – Mike Michaud is the new leader in the Maine Governor’s race, benefiting from the continued unpopularity of incumbent Paul LePage and declining support for independent Eliot Cutler over the last seven months. Michaud is at 39% to 35% for LePage and 18% for Cutler.

LePage’s position is pretty much unchanged from our last poll of Maine in January. He was at 34% then and he’s at 35% now. His approval rating was a 39/55 spread then, and it’s a 39/56 spread now. Where there’s been a pretty big shift is the positions of Michaud and Cutler. Cutler has dropped 8 points from 26% in the winter to 18% now and Michaud’s been the beneficiary, going from 30% then to 39% now.

In a two way contest Michaud would blow LePage out, leading him 54/39. Michaud has already improved from 47% of the Democratic vote in January to 63% now, and if Cutler’s chances continue to fade Michaud may keep moving closer to the 84% of Democrats he gets in a head to head contest with LePage.

LePage has drawn a lot of attention recently for comments he allegedly made saying that President Obama ‘hates white people.’ Despite attempts to deny, 47% of Mainers believe LePage made the comments to 30% who think he did not. Only 20% of voters in the state agree with the sentiment that Obama hates white people to 66% who do not.

This latest episode, along with everything else that’s happened throughout LePage’s term, has resulted in 62% of voters in the state feeling that he brings Maine ‘national embarrassment’ to only 33% of voters who disagree with that. 88% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and even 30% of Republicans think LePage is making the state look bad to the rest of the country.

“Paul LePage’s chances of getting reelected next year probably depend on Eliot Cutler getting at least 30% of the vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Cutler’s support is moving in the wrong direction, and that makes Mike Michaud the favorite in this race.”

PPP surveyed 953 Maine voters between August 23-25, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 3.2%. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Cutler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Michaud?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul
LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who
would you vote for?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 18%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 35%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor were just
Republican Paul LePage and Democrat Mike
Michaud, who would you vote for?
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 39%
Mike Michaud………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q7 Do you think that Governor LePage causes
Maine national embarrassment, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 62%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q8 Do you believe Paul LePage said that Barack
Obama hates white people, or not?
Think he did ……………………………………………. 47%
Don’t think he did …………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q9 Do you think that Barack Obama hates white
people, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 20%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%