Raleigh, N.C. — PPP’s newest Arizona poll finds that John McCain is unpopular with Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and has now become the least popular Senator in the country. Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn’t much variability in his numbers by party- he’s at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents.

McCain trails in hypothetical general election match ups with both 2012 nominee Richard Carmona (41/35) and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (42/35). He would lead though in a match up with former Governor Janet Napolitano, 44/36. This has the potential to be an interesting one in 2016.

“The low opinion both Republicans and Democrats have of John McCain now means he could be vulnerable in both the primary and the general election next time around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “George McGovern lost his Senate seat 8 years after losing his Presidential bid and McCain could suffer a similar fate.”

PPP finds that Arizona’s controversial immigration law, SB 1070, is still narrowly popular among voters. 44% still support the bill, compared to 36% who oppose. Support is split along both racial and party lines. Hispanics oppose the bill (28/48) as well as Democrats (20/62), whereas whites (48/32) and Republicans (64/14) support it heavily. Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, advocate of tougher immigration laws, has similar support to SB 1070. 48% of voters have a favorable opinion, to 43% with an unfavorable opinion.

As with every other state, Arizona voters would overwhelmingly prefer to legalize medical marijuana. 67% say it should be legal, and only 26% still want it to be illegal. Medical marijuana has a majority of support from Democrats (92/5) and Independents (67/22), and a plurality of support from Republicans (47/44). At least for now, legalizing marijuana represents a place where almost all groups can agree. Arizonans are more split on whether marijuana should be allowed for recreational use. 46% think it should be allowed, while 48% think it should not be.

PPP surveyed 870 Arizona voters, including 403 Republican primary voters, from February 28th to March 2nd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3% and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-4.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gabrielle Giffords?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Janet Napolitano?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican John McCain and Democrat
Richard Carmona, who would you vote for?
John McCain…………………………………………… 35%
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican John McCain and Democrat
Gabrielle Giffords, who would you vote for?
John McCain…………………………………………… 35%
Gabrielle Giffords…………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican John McCain and Democrat Janet
Napolitano, who would you vote for?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Janet Napolitano……………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Flake’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jan
Brewer, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Jan Brewer……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 53%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q15 Looking back, do you support or oppose
Senate Bill 1070, the immigration law passed in
Arizona in 2010?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q16 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for medical purposes with the approval
of a doctor, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 67%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for recreational use, that stores should
be allowed to sell it, and that its sales should
be taxed and regulated similarly to alcohol, or
not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 46%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Arpaio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q19 Do you consider yourself to be an Arizona or
Arizona State fan?
Arizona…………………………………………………… 31%
Arizona St. ……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q20 (Q20-21 asked only of Arizona fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of basketball coach
Sean Miller’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q21 Do you approve or disapprove of football coach
Rich Rodriguez’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q22 (Q22-23 asked only of Arizona State fans) Do
you approve or disapprove of basketball coach
Herb Sendek’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q23 Do you approve or disapprove of football coach
Todd Graham’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q24 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals,
New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, St.
Louis Cardinals, or some other team?
Diamondbacks ………………………………………… 50%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 4%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 7%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 3%
Angels……………………………………………………. 1%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 2%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 5%
Padres …………………………………………………… 1%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 2%
Some other team / Don’t have a favorite……… 25%

Q25 (Asked only of Diamondbacks fans:) What do
you think the outcome of the 2014 season will
be for the Diamondbacks? Do you think they
will win the World Series, win the National
League but not the World Series, make the
playoffs but not win the National League, or not
make the playoffs at all?
Win the World Series ……………………………….. 23%
Win the NL but not the World Series…………… 19%
Make the playoffs but won’t win the NL……….. 39%
Won’t make the playoffs……………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%

Q30 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q32 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 4%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 8%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%