Raleigh, N.C. – Just a week after besting Cal Cunningham by nine points in the initial primary, Elaine Marshall is now tied with Cunningham at 36% in the runoff to face Richard Burr in November.
There is an enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters. Among the 49% who are very excited to vote in November, Cunningham leads 46-31. Among the 38% who are somewhat excited and the 11% who are not very excited, Marshall leads 42-31 and 28-18, respectively.
Cunningham leads among the 62% of likely voters who are white, 43-32, while Marshall leads with the 33% share of the electorate which is African American, 44-22. Among the 41% who are aged 46-65, Cunningham leads 43-30, but Marshall leads by five or eleven points in all other age groups.
Marshall is still the most popular candidate among Democratic runoff voters, with a 49-9 favorability rating to Cunningham’s 35-14.
Despite Marshall’s argument that North Carolina voters do not want Washington Democrats to pick their candidate for them, it seems to be a good thing to be seen as the DSCC’s choice. Voters are split, 33 who say Cunningham and 32 Marshall, on who they think is that choice to begin with. Among those who think it is Marshall, she has a 73% favorability rating and leads Cunningham 74-11. Among those who think the DSCC backs Cunningham, he has a 74% favorability mark and beats Marshall 82-12.
“Next month’s runoff election is likely to see even lower turnout than last week’s primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “We’re finding that Cunningham’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Marshall’s, and that could allow him to close the gap from last week’s results between now and the runoff.”
PPP surveyed 445 likely Senate runoff voters from May 8th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not Sure……………. 52%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 41%
Q3 Do you think that Cal Cunningham or Elaine
Marshall is the preferred candidate of national
Democratic leaders in the US Senate race?
Cal Cunningham……………………………………… 33%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q4 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the general election this fall?
Very excited……………………………………………. 49%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 38%
Not very excited………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q5 Generally speaking do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not vote in
primaries? If you vote in Democratic primaries,
press 1. If Republican primaries, press 2. If
you don’t vote in primaries, press 3.
Democratic…………………………………………….. 100%
Repubican………………………………………………. 0%
N/A………………………………………………………… 0%
Q6 How likely are you to vote in the June 22nd
runoff election for US Senate?
Certain to vote ………………………………………… 71%
Will probably vote ……………………………………. 29%
Chances are fifty-fifty ……………………………….. 0%
Will not vote ……………………………………………. 0%
Q7 The candidates in the Democratic runoff for US
Senate are Cal Cunningham and Elaine
Marshall. If the runoff was today, who would
you vote for?
Cal Cunningham……………………………………… 36%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 17%
Obama…………………………………………………… 79%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 30%
Moderate………………………………………………… 52%
Conservative…………………………………………… 17%
Q10 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town? If
urban, press 1. If suburban, press 2. If rural,
press 3. If a small town, press 4.
Urban…………………………………………………….. 20%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 25%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 31%
Small Town…………………………………………….. 24%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q12 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 33%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q14
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 25%
