Polls

Manchin would clobber Maloney, Capito more narrowly

| Dustin Ingalls

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SenateGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
Bill Maloney may have just narrowly lost the gubernatorial race Tuesday, but if he had faced Joe Manchin for Senate instead, he would have gone down in flames.  In fact, his loss would have been ten times larger, getting only 29% to Manchin’s 60%.  Not only would Maloney pull less of the Democratic vote—which is crucial in a state where 55% of voters identify with that party, despite their conservatism—but Manchin himself earns 34% of the GOP vote and holds a 28-point lead with independents.  Manchin is a considerably stronger candidate than Earl Ray Tomblin.  In fact, Manchin is the fifth most popular of 87 senators on which PPP has polled, with a 61-23 approval margin.  Not only do Democrats approve, 68-19, but so do Republicans (52-30) and independents (54-24).

If she decides to run, Manchin could face a considerably tougher race against Shelley Moore Capito next year.  He leads her now, 49-38, down from 52-36 a month ago.  They each get about 20% crossover support, and they tie with independents, so Manchin’s entire lead is built on his party’s dominance of the voter rolls.

Indeed, if Manchin’s considerably less popular senior colleague, Jay Rockefeller, faced Capito in 2014, he would actually trail, 48-44.  She leads by eight with independents and pulls 28% of Democrats—about what a GOP candidate needs to win in this state—to his 12% of Republicans.  Rockefeller has only a 47-41 approval rating.

Despite their usual geographic inclusion in the region, Mountain Staters generally do not consider themselves Southerners.  45% do, but 55% do not.

A plurality of West Virginians want their Mountaineers to stay right where they are.  32% prefer they stay in the Big East conference.  The same amount are not sure.  Only 13% want the school to move to the ACC, 12% to the SEC, 9% to the Big 10, and 2% to the Big 12.

PPP surveyed 932 likely West Virginia voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jay
Rockefeller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .61%
Disapprove…………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin………. 49%
Shelley Moore
Capito………………..38%
Undecided…………. 13%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican Bill
Maloney, who would you vote for?
Joe Manchin………. 60%
Bill Maloney……….. 29%
Undecided…………. 11%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jay Rockefeller and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Jay Rockefeller…… 44%
Shelley Moore
Capito………………..48%
Undecided…………. 7%

Q8 What conference would you most like to see
West Virginia in: the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big
12, or SEC?
ACC………………………………………………………. 13%
Big East …………………………………………………. 32%
Big 10 ……………………………………………………. 9%
Big 12 ……………………………………………………. 2%
SEC ………………………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rich Rodriguez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner, or
not?
Consider yourself a Southerner …………………. 45%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 55%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

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