Polls

Kitzhaber, Merkley lead potential foes

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest
Oregon poll finds Governor John Kitzhaber and Senator Jeff Merkley relatively
popular and leading every Republican we tested against them.

Kitzhaber and Merkley have both become more popular over the second half of
this year. Kitzhaber’s approval rating is a +9 spread at 50/41. That’s up 3
points from June when it was +6 at 45/39. Merkley’s seen a more dramatic
improvement in his standing. On our last poll he was at just a +3 approval
spread (37/34) but now he’s improved 12 points to +15 (44/29). Those are the
best approval numbers we’ve found for him since he took office.

There are two Republicans who could be competitive with Kitzhaber and
Merkley if they decided to mount 2014 campaigns: former Senator Gordon Smith
and Congressman Greg Walden. Smith would trail Kitzhaber 47-42 and Merkley
47-43. That 4 point lead for Merkley over Smith is nearly identical to his 3
point win over him in 2008. Walden seems an incredibly unlikely candidate given
his new leadership role but he would also come within single digits of both
candidates, trailing Kitzhaber 49-40 and Merkley 47-42.

We also tested a trio of second tier potential Republican candidates against
Kitzhaber and Merkley but none of them come anywhere close. Allen Alley trails
Kitzhaber 52-37 and Merkley 53-36. Bruce Hanna trails Kitzhaber 52-33 and
Merkley 52-34. Bruce Starr trails Kitzhaber 53-31 and Merkley 52-32.

“It’s early but John Kitzhaber and Jeff Merkley appear to be in pretty good
shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Their approval
numbers are improving and they lead all their potential Republican opponents.”

Oregon voters are ready to legalize same sex marriage. 77% think they should
be able to have a say on the issue, and 54% say they would vote to legalize it
with 40% opposed. Independents support it by a 64/33 margin and there are more
Republicans (17%) ready to make it legal than there are Democrats (15%) who
aren’t. Voters under 45 support it by a 68/30 spread.

PPP surveyed 614 Oregon voters from December 3rd
to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kitzhaber’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allen Alley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Hanna?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gordon Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Starr?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Walden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Allen
Alley, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 52%
Allen Alley ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Bruce Hanna, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 52%
Bruce Hanna…………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Gordon Smith, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 47%
Gordon Smith………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Bruce Starr, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 53%
Bruce Starr……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican
Greg Walden, who would you vote for?
John Kitzhaber ………………………………………… 49%
Greg Walden…………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Merkley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Allen
Alley, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 53%
Allen Alley ………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bruce
Hanna, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 52%
Bruce Hanna…………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon
Smith, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 47%
Gordon Smith………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bruce
Starr, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 52%
Bruce Starr……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Greg
Walden, who would you vote for?
Jeff Merkley ……………………………………………. 47%
Greg Walden…………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Wyden’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q20 Do you think Oregon voters should be allowed
to vote on whether they think same-sex
marriage should be legal, or not?
Voters should be allowed to………………………. 77%
They should not ………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q21 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Oregon, or not?
Should be allowed …………………………………… 54%
Should not………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Oregon’s football uniforms?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q23 Do you consider yourself to be more an
Oregon or Oregon State fan?
Oregon…………………………………………………… 38%
Oregon State ………………………………………….. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q24 Is your favorite NFL team the Arizona
Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos,
Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders, San
Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, or
Seattle Seahawks?
Cardinals………………………………………………… 2%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 6%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 11%
Packers………………………………………………….. 9%
Raiders ………………………………………………….. 5%
Chargers………………………………………………… 2%
49ers……………………………………………………… 10%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 35%

Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q29 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q30 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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