Raleigh, N.C. – Just two months after trailing by eight points, Republican Mark Kirk has now moved ahead of Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by a 37-33 margin in the Illinois Senate race.
The controversies swirling around Giannoulias and his family seem to be taking a toll on him. Where before 31% of voters viewed him favorably to 19% unfavorably, now just 21% have a positive opinion of him and 28% see him negatively.
Democratic voters don’t seem to know what to think of the issue surrounding Giannoulias and because of that 36% of them are undecided compared to only 16% of Republicans. Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is at just 54% of the Democratic vote. Kirk also has a 33-30 advantage with independents.
Kirk continues to be mostly unknown to Illinois voters. 53% have no opinion of him with 24% holding a positive one and 23% a negative one. That’s pretty much unchanged from a 27/22 spread in January, further confirming the movement in the race has everything to do with Giannoulias and little to do with Kirk.
50% of voters approve of home state President Barack Obama’s job performance to 42% who disapprove. He’s maintained an 81% level of support from within his own party but just 7% of Republicans give him good marks. Independents say they’re happy with him by a 51/38 margin.
“The undecided Democrats will decide this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Will they come home and support Giannoulias in the end, will they stay at home, or will they cross party lines to vote for Kirk? We don’t know that answer yet.”
PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve…………….. 50%
Disapprove………… 42%
Not Sure……………. 8%
Q2 Do you think that Republicans should work to
repeal the health care bill that was passed last
week? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 47%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 43%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 11%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 18%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 29%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 21%
Unfavorable……….. 28%
Not Sure……………. 51%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………. 24%
Unfavorable ………… 23%
Not Sure……………… 53%
Q8 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk. If the
election was today, who would you vote for? If
Alexi Giannoulias, press 1. If Mark Kirk, press
2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Giannoulias…………………………………………….. 33%
Kirk ……………………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q9 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 39%
Obama…………………………………………………… 54%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q10 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
