Raleigh, N.C. – Despite getting the most votes in the first primary, Tim D’Annunzio is now behind second-place finisher Harold Johnson by double digits a week before the June 22nd runoff election to face incumbent Congressman Larry Kissell.
Johnson tops D’Annunzio 49-39, with 12% still undecided. D’Annunzio is holding 80% of his May 4th voters for the runoff, but Johnson retains 93% of his. The greatest movement comes from the also-rans. 65% of Hal Jordan’s voters, 46% of Lou Huddleston’s, and 41% of those who remember voting for someone else are now pledging for Johnson.
The two candidates’ respective favorability marks with their base electorate are almost exact mirror opposites. 41% have an unfavorable opinion of D’Annunzio, to 44% who have a positive view of Johnson; only 33% see D’Annunzio in a good light, more than the 32% who are down on Johnson.
Yesterday’s release showed that 39% of all the district’s voters have soured on D’Annunzio in the last month. Among only Republican primary voters, slightly more — 41% — say that, more than twice as many as those who now see D’Annunzio more positively than before.
While a 44% plurality do believe D’Annunzio fit for public office, that pales in comparison to the 55% who say that of Johnson. Twice as many say D’Annunzio is not fit for office as say that about Johnson.
“It looks like Larry Kissell will be facing the more electable candidate, Harold Johnson,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Tim D’Annunzio is in trouble even with his own base. He’s within the margin of error of Johnson, but the public opinion trajectory is not in his favor.”
PPP surveyed 257 NC-8 Republican primary voters from June 10th to 13th. The margin of error is +/-6.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
Tim D’Annunzio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
Harold Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Did you vote for Tim D’Annunzio, Harold
Johnson, Hal Jordan, Lou Huddleston, or
someone else in the primary for Congress last
month?
Tim D’Annunzio……………………………………….. 36%
Harold Johnson……………………………………….. 31%
Hal Jordan ……………………………………………… 15%
Lou Huddleston……………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q4 What would you say are the chances you will
vote in the June 22nd Republican House
runoff?
Very likely ………………………………………………. 89%
Somewhat likely………………………………………. 11%
Chances are 50-50 ………………………………….. 0%
Not likely ………………………………………………… 0%
Q5 The candidates in the House runoff are Tim
D’Annunzio and Harold Johnson. If the runoff
was today, who would you vote for?
Tim D’Annunzio……………………………………….. 39%
Harold Johnson……………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you think Harold Johnson is fit to hold
public office?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 55%
No …………………………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 Do you think Tim D’Annunzio is fit to hold
public office?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 Over the last month has your opinion of Tim
D’Annunzio become more positive, more
negative, or remained unchanged?
More positive ………………………………………….. 20%
More negative…………………………………………. 41%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 39%
