Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s most recent poll of Iowa voters shows a closely divided, though stable, political climate in the Hawkeye State. Republicans seem likely to hold on to hold on to the governorship, as both Governor Terry Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds hold leads over most Democratic candidates. Chet Culver seems to be the Democrats’ most viable option, as the former Governor trails Branstad by just 5%, 47% to 42%, and leads Reynolds 42% to 38%. Every other potential challenger falls to Branstad by double digits, though the races are much closer against Reynolds.
In the 2014 election to replace retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, who has an approval rating of 49% to 39% disapproval, the best margin for any political figure in Iowa, the Democrats are likely to retain the seat. Congressman Bruce Braley holds double digit leads over every major Republican candidate, with the sole exception of former US Attorney Matt Whitaker, whom he leads by 9%, 43% to 34%. This may be due to the fact that he has the highest name recognition of any possible Senate candidate, with 58% having an opinion (34% favorable, 24% unfavorable) compared to 19% for radio host Sam Clovis (5%/14%), 20% for State Senator Joni Ernst (7%/13%), 16% for businessman Mark Jacobs (4%/12%), and 24% for Matt Whitaker (9%/15%).
In other news, Iowans are still divided on the issue of same-sex marriage, with 47% supporting its legality and 44% opposing. 26% of Iowa voters believe that legal same-sex marriage has had a negative impact on their lives, compared to 11% who say it has had a positive impact. Iowans are much more unified in their support for background checks for all gun purchases, 75% to 18%, including the support of 60% of Republicans. Finally, Iowans are pretty divided on major political figures. President Obama has an approval/disapproval split of 46% to 50%, Governor Branstad is at 45% to 46%, Senator Charles Grassley is at 47% to 38%, and Representative Steve King is at 29% to 44%.
“Terry Branstad’s approval numbers suggest he could be vulnerable but none of the Democrats come too close to him,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Republican recruiting failures have Bruce Braley out to a solid early lead in the Senate race.”
PPP surveyed 668 registered voters between July 5-7, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 3.8%. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chet Culver?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Gronstal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Hatch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tyler Olson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Chet
Culver, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Mike
Gronstal, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 50%
Mike Gronstal………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Tyler
Olson, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 47%
Tyler Olson……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Reynolds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Kim Reynolds and Democrat Chet
Culver, who would you vote for?
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 38%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Kim Reynolds and Democrat Mike
Gronstal, who would you vote for?
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 37%
Mike Gronstal………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Kim Reynolds and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 36%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Kim Reynolds and Democrat Tyler
Olson, who would you vote for?
Kim Reynolds………………………………………….. 36%
Tyler Olson……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Clovis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Jacobs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Whitaker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Young?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Sam
Clovis, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 43%
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q23 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni
Ernst, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 45%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q24 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Mark
Jacobs, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 44%
Mark Jacobs …………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q25 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Matt
Whitaker, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 43%
Matt Whitaker………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q26 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican David
Young, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 45%
David Young …………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q27 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q28 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q29 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q30 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Iowa, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 47%
It should not be ……………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q31 Has the legalization of gay marriage in Iowa
had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 11%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 26%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 63%
Q32 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks for all gun sales, including
gun shows and the Internet?
Support ………………………………………………….. 75%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q33 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q34 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q35 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q36 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q37 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
