Raleigh, N.C. – PPP finds the Iowa Republican field to be completely wide open, while Hilary Clinton maintains her lead in all potential general election match-ups. Among Republicans, six different candidates garner support of at least 8%, while none get over 20%.
Mike Huckabee currently leads the field with 20% of the vote, followed by Ted Cruz at 15% and Jeb Bush at 12%. Chris Christie (9%), Rand Paul (10%), and Paul Ryan (8%) all garner at least 8% as well. Almost all of the leading candidates have positive favorability ratings, with Jeb Bush at 48% favorable and 25% unfavorable, Ted Cruz at 58/11, Mike Huckabee at 70/14, Rand Paul at 60/12, and Paul Ryan at 60/15. The lone exception is Chris Christie, who sits at a 36% favorable opinion with 38% unfavorable, the highest unfavorable score of anyone not named Donald Trump by 13 points.
However, Hillary Clinton leads all potential general election match-ups by an average of 5 points. Clinton leads Jeb Bush by a margin of 44/39, Chris Christie 45/39, Ted Cruz 47/40 and both Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul by a margin of 46/42. Much of Clinton’s leads come from moderates, as over 50% of moderates say they’ll vote for Clinton in each of those potential match-ups, despite almost 20% saying they are still undecided. Even conservatives are not too quick to jump behind any of the Republican candidates, as over 10% of people identifying as either somewhat or very conservative are undecided in each case. Conversely, indecision amongst liberals is in the single digits. Unsurprisingly, Clinton garners a majority of the support amongst women against all potential Republican candidates.
“The story in Iowa- and everywhere that we poll- remains the same,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Republican nomination is completely up in the air while Democrats are pretty firmly behind Hillary Clinton if she decides to get into the race. And Clinton is the early favorite for the general election in most of the major swing states as well.”
PPP surveyed 914 Iowa voters, including 356 Democratic primary voters and 303 Republican primary voters, from May 15th to 19th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2%, for the Democrats it’s +/-5.2% and for the Republicans it’s +/- 5.6%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 28%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q12 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 9%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 4%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 8%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 6%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ben Carson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kasich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Scarborough?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 42%
Man……………………………………………………….. 58%
Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 3%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 59%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 11%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 8%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 34%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 4%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 22%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 26%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 9%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 14%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 5%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 31%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 36%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 83%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 35%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 5%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
