Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Idaho poll finds a close race for Governor- although there are also strong signals within the poll that the contest might not end up being that close in the end. Incumbent Butch Otter leads with only 39% to 35% for Democrat A.J. Balukoff. Minor candidates combine for an unusually high 12%, and 14% of voters are undecided.
The support right now for the minor candidates is a reflection of Otter’s unpopularity. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove, and even Republicans are pretty tepid in their feelings about him with 54% approving to 27% who disapprove. But those voters supporting the minor candidates say they would pick Otter over Balukoff 65/26 if they had to choose between the two, and that’s enough to push Otter’s lead up to 47/38 in a head to head contest. Given the tendency for third party candidates to fade down the stretch, that’s an important data point. Beyond that the undecideds voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama 71/16 in 2012, suggesting that if they eventually choose based on party loyalty Otter could ultimately win by double digits despite his current low numbers.
“Butch Otter is one of the least popular Governors in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there may not be a state where it’s harder for Democrats to win than Idaho.”
There are also several down ballot races right now where Democrats find themselves within striking range. Republican Lawerence Denney leads Holli Woodings only 38/35 for Secretary of State, and Republican Sherri Ybarra leads Democrat Jana Jones just 41/38 for Superintendent of Public Instruction. The undecideds don’t bode terribly well for Democratic chances in these races either though- the ones for Secretary of State voted 68/18 for Mitt Romney in 2012, and the ones for Superintendent voted 75/12 for Romney. The rest of the Idaho ballot finds Republicans leading by double digits. Jim Risch is up 50/32 on Nels Mitchell for the Senate, Brad Little leads Bert Marley 42/25 for Lieutenant Governor with Constitution Party candidate David Hartigan at 12%, Ron Crane leads Deborah Silver 46/32 for Treasurer, and Lawrence Wasden is up 52/26 on Bruce Bistline for Attorney General.
PPP surveyed 522 likely voters from October 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Butch Otter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of A.J. Balukoff?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Butch Otter, Democrat A.J. Balukoff,
Libertarian John Bujak, Constitution Party
candidate Steve Pankey, independent Jill
Humble, and independent Pro Life. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Butch Otter……………………………………………… 39%
A.J. Balukoff……………………………………………. 35%
John Bujak ……………………………………………… 4%
Steve Pankey………………………………………….. 2%
Jill Humble ……………………………………………… 3%
Pro Life ………………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters asked if they lean Otter or Balukoff
Butch Otter……………………………………………… 47%
A.J. Balukoff……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Risch’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nels Mitchell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q8 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Jim Risch and Democrat Nels Mitchell. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Jim Risch ……………………………………………….. 50%
Nels Mitchell …………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican Brad Little, Democrat Bert Marley,
and Constitution Party candidate David
Hartigan. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Brad Little……………………………………………….. 42%
Bert Marley …………………………………………….. 25%
David Hartigan ………………………………………… 12%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Lawerence Denney and Democrat
Holli Woodings. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Lawerene Denney……………………………………. 38%
Holli Woodings………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q11 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Republican Ron Crane and Democrat Deborah
Silver. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Ron Crane ……………………………………………… 46%
Deborah Silver ………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q12 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Lawrence Wasden and Democrat
Bruce Bistline. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Lawrence Wasden …………………………………… 52%
Bruce Bistline………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Republican Sherri Ybarra and
Democrat Jana Jones. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sherri Ybarra ………………………………………….. 41%
Jana Jones …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Crapo’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Raul Labrador?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Simpson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q17 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Idaho, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 38%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q18 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q19 Do you think same-sex marriage becoming
legal in Idaho will have a positive or negative
impact on your life, or will it not make a
difference?
Positive impact………………………………………… 12%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 41%
Don’t think it’ll make a difference ……………….. 46%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 33%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 33%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 34%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 34%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 33%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Larry Craig?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q26 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Church?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dirk Kempthorne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cecil Andrus?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q29 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 51%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q30 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado
Rockies, Kansas City Royals, New York
Yankees, San Francisco Giants, and Seattle
Mariners which is your favorite Major League
Baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 3%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 8%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 7%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 6%
Royals……………………………………………………. 4%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 6%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 5%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 24%
Someone else / No favorite……………………….. 37%
Q31 Given the choices of the Dallas Cowboys,
Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New
England Patriots, New York Giants, Oakland
Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle
Seahawks which is your favorite NFL team?
Cowboys………………………………………………… 6%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 17%
Packers………………………………………………….. 8%
Patriots ………………………………………………….. 3%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 1%
Raiders ………………………………………………….. 1%
49ers……………………………………………………… 8%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 28%
Someone else / No favorite……………………….. 28%
Q32 Who do you root for in college sports given the
choices of Boise State, the University of Idaho,
and Idaho State?
Boise State …………………………………………….. 49%
Idaho……………………………………………………… 19%
Idaho State …………………………………………….. 12%
Someone else / No favorite……………………….. 20%
Q33 (Asked only of Boise State fans:) Do you have
a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris
Petersen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q34 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of potatoes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 89%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q35 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Napoleon Dynamite?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q36 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 29%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 61%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 10%
Q37 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 28%
Q38 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q39 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 21%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 31%
Q40 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
Other……………………………………………………… 15%
Q41 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q42 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
