Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled New Hampshire Republicans a few weeks ago, Donald Trump was the only candidate who came close to that primary’s frontrunner, Mitt Romney, lagging only 27-21. But Trump is much less of a threat to Iowa’s 2008 winner and current leader, Mike Huckabee, who earns 27% of usual caucusgoers’ support, over Romney’s 16% and Trump’s 14%, with everyone else in single digits. Without Trump in the picture, Huckabee leads Romney, 30-18, the same split as when PPP last polled the race in early January. Palin and Newt Gingrich jump up to 12% apiece.
Absent Trump Tim Pawlenty has barely increased his support from 4% to 7% since then, while Sarah Palin has dropped from 15% to 12%, possibly coinciding not only with her lower profile since the Tucson shootings but also since the emergence of Trump and Michele Bachmann as serious contenders.
Bachmann may have usurped Palin as the Tea Party darling. While Palin gets almost twice as much support from Tea Partiers as non-Tea Partiers, Bachmann places no worse than fourth among Tea Partiers, and actually leads Romney 27-20 with this group in the smallest variation of the field. She earns roughly three times as much support from the 28% who label themselves part of the movement as the 48% plurality who do not identify with the movement. Huckabee or Romney lead overwhelmingly with the latter group.
Huckabee is Romney’s greatest threat. Romney leads Palin and Paul 25-15 without Huckabee or Trump in the game, and tops Gingrich 28-19 without those two or Palin. Romney is also vulnerable on his health care plan. 63% of these voters would not be willing to support a candidate who endorsed a health insurance mandate. Without Huckabee, Palin, or Trump in the race, Romney leads Paul 36-15 with the slim 11% who would be inclined to support such a candidate, but leads Bachmann only 25-20 with those who would not.
“Iowa still loves Mike Huckabee,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If he doesn’t get into the race Mitt Romney will be the nominal front runner in the state- one person Iowa Republicans definitely aren’t too interested in right now is Donald Trump.”
PPP surveyed 419 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from April 15th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Daniels?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 90%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 14%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q18 What if Donald Trump didn’t run and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 30%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q19 What if neither Mike Huckabee nor Donald
Trump ran and the candidates for President in
2012 were just Michele Bachmann, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q20 What if Mike Huckabee did run but neither
Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump did and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 33%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q21 What if neither Mike Huckabee, nor Sarah
Palin, nor Donald Trump ran for President and
the candidates were just Michele Bachmann,
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and
Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q24 Would you be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance for
President?
Would be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance ……………….11%
Would not be willing to……………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
