Raleigh, N.C. – Following the controversy over his ‘Uncle Sugar’ speech Mike Huckabee has taken the lead in the Republican primary race for 2016. He’s at 16% to 14% for Jeb Bush, 13% for Chris Christie, 11% for Rand Paul, 8% each for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan, 6% for Scott Walker, and 5% for Bobby Jindal.
There’s been more movement than usual over the last month, with Huckabee and Bush each gaining 3-4 points, and Chris Christie and Ted Cruz each falling by 6 points. Cruz had been leading the field among ‘very conservative’ voters for months but in the wake of Huckabee’s press attention last week he’s taken the top spot with that group. He’s at 20% to 15% for Paul, 11% for Cruz, and 10% for Bush.
“Mike Huckabee’s comments last week didn’t hurt him with the GOP base,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If anything they might have helped him in combination with Chris Christie’s implosion.”
Last month Christie led Hillary Clinton in a head to head, 45/42. Now Clinton has the upper hand on him at 45/43. That’s similar to the small leads Clinton holds over the rest of her potential Republican opponents- she’s up 45/43 on Bush, 46/44 on Ryan, 46/43 on Huckabee and Paul, and 47/41 on Cruz.
Clinton’s leads might be modest but there’s not much doubt Democrats would be in a far, far better position with her than any of their other potential candidates. Even with Christie’s declining popularity he would still lead Elizabeth Warren by 9 points (43/34) and Joe Biden by 11 points (46/35) in hypothetical contests.
Clinton continues to be as dominant as ever when it comes to the Democratic primary. 67% want her to be the candidate to 7% each for Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, and 2% each for Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo.
PPP surveyed 845 registered voters from January 23rd to 26th, including 457 Republican primary voters and 334 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4%, for the Republicans it’s +/-4.6% and for the Democrats it’s +/-5.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 35%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 34%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q22 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q24 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 13%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 8%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 16%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 5%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 8%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for
President in 2016, who would you support,
given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 18%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 17%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 11%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 5%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 13%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 7%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 2%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 67%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 32%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 7%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 16%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q3 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 11%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 13%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 4%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 3%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 24%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 43%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 83%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 57%
African-American …………………………………….. 26%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
