Raleigh, N.C. – They may have dealt a huge blow to her campaign in 2008 but Iowa Democrats love Hillary Clinton and express strong support for her if she was to run again in 2016.
Clinton has an 88/6 favorability rating with Democrats in the state. 62% say they would like her to be the nominee in 2016 to 14% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, 2% each for Russ Feingold and Brian Schweitzer, 1% for Martin O’Malley, and 0% for Mark Warner. Clinton’s support is pretty universal. 66% of women, 57% of men, 65% of liberals, 58% of moderates, 63% of Democrats, and 61% of independents support her.
If Clinton doesn’t run Biden is next on the list for Iowa Democrats. He is almost as popular as Clinton, with a 76/8 favorability score. He would be the first choice of 28% of voters in a Clinton-less field to 14% for Cuomo, 10% for Warren, 9% for Feingold, 2% for Schweitzer, 1% for Warner, and 0% for O’Malley.
Things look like they would be really wide open in Iowa if neither Clinton nor Biden runs. In that field 47% of voters would be undecided with Cuomo at 17%, Feingold at 15%, Warren at 13%, Schweitzer at 4%, O’Malley at 3%, and Warner at 1%.
Maybe Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate in 2016 but if not the top tier of candidates in Iowa at this point is Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum at 16% and Chris Christie at 15%. We also tested Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin (both at 10%), Rand Paul (9%), Marco Rubio (7%), and Paul Ryan (5%).
All 8 of the Republicans we tested have more than 50% name recognition, speaking to the GOP having a bigger bench of well known possible 2016 hopefuls than the Democrats do. In order of descending net popularity Huckabee’s at +57 (69/12), Palin’s at +53 (70/17), Bush is at +53 (62/9), Santorum’s at +51 (68/17), Paul’s at +39 (54/15), Rubio’s at +39 (46/7), Ryan’s at +36 (44/8), and Christie’s at +34 (50/16).
PPP surveyed 346 Republican and 335 Democratic Iowa primary voters between May 3rd and 6th. The margin of error for the Republican survey is +/-5.3 and for the Democrats it’s +/5.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Caucus Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 76%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 88%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 14%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 62%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q10 If Hillary Clinton didn’t run for President in
2016, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 28%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 14%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 9%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 36%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 17%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 15%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 4%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 13%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 47%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 36%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 79%
Republican……………………………………………… 4%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Republican Caucus Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 69%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016,
and the Republican candidates for President
were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most
like to see as the GOP candidate for
President?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 16%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 9%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 7%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 16%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 60%
Are not …………………………………………………… 40%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 46%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 89%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
