Raleigh, N.C. – Last week PPP conducted a survey in Wake County School Board District 3 that found incumbent Kevin Hill leading challenger Heather Losurdo 45-34, a margin almost equivalent to Hill’s margin of victory tonight. The survey also asked who respondents would vote for if the race ended up in a runoff between Hill and Losurdo- in that instance Hill led by a 16 point margin at 52-36.
Hill would expand on his victory margin from tonight because the supporters of Jennifer Mansfield and Eric Squires, who combined for a little over 10% of the vote, say they would vote for Hill over Losurdo by a 44-37 margin in a head to head. The Mansfield/Squires voters have an incredibly dim view of Losurdo- just 23% see her positively to 63% with a negative opinion.
The campaign has taken a serious toll on Losurdo’s image. Just 36% of voters in the district have a favorable view of her, with 43% seeing her negatively. Hill, on the other hand, is quite popular with 48% of voters approving of him to only 30% who disapprove.
District 3 has a strong Republican registration advantage. Hill was able to win tonight because we found him leading Losurdo by 16 points with independents and taking 20% of the Republican vote while Losurdo was able to win over only 10% of the Democratic vote. In the hypothetical head to head Hill leads 54-34 with independents and picks up 25% of the GOP support while still just losing 12% of Democrats.
Democrats may not have completely finished off taking back the majority on the Wake County School Board tonight. But our numbers indicate they should finish the job four weeks from now.
“Heather Losurdo can call for a run off,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But our numbers indicate that she will likely lose by a wider margin than she did tonight. Her prospects for victory are extremely small.”
Note: PPP has done work for Kevin Hill in this campaign, but this particular survey was conducted independently.
PPP surveyed 519 likely voters from October 3rd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Q1 The candidates for School Board in your district
are Kevin Hill, Heather Losurdo, Jennifer
Mansfield, and Eric Squires. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kevin Hill………………………………………………… 45%
Heather Losurdo ……………………………………… 34%
Jennifer Mansfield……………………………………. 6%
Eric Squires ……………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
School Board member Kevin Hill is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Losurdo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jennifer Mansfield?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q5 If the candidates for School Board were just
Kevin Hill and Heather Losurdo, who would you
vote for?
Kevin Hill………………………………………………… 52%
Heather Losurdo ……………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for School Board were just
Kevin Hill and Jennifer Mansfield, who would
you vote for?
Kevin Hill………………………………………………… 50%
Jennifer Mansfield……………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q7 Generally speaking, do you approve or
disapprove of the job the current Wake County
School Board is doing?
Strongly approve……………………………………… 23%
Somewhat approve………………………………….. 21%
Somewhat disapprove ……………………………… 23%
Strongly disapprove …………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Margiotta?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Art Pope?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 2%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
