Raleigh, N.C. – Having recently been appointed to fill the rest of John Ensign’s unexpired Senate term, Dean Heller’s bid for his own six years could not be any closer. Likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Shelley Berkley, ties Heller at 45% in PPP’s latest poll of the race, the first since July, when Heller led, 46-43.
The entire movement in the horse race is with Democrats, who are starting to consolidate behind Berkley as they become more aware that she is their candidate. In July, only 75% of her party were behind her, with 11% for Heller. That is now 82-14, almost matching Heller’s 83% of the GOP, though Berkley pulls only 8% of Republicans, up just a tick from 6%. Heller maintains a two-point lead with independents, but they are less than a fifth of the electorate. Republicans are twice as numerous, and Democrats more than that.
Three months ago, voters were split evenly on Berkley personally. A third saw her favorably, another third unfavorably, and the rest were not sure. She has upped her name recognition and positive rating since then, now at a 38-35 spread, similar to Heller’s 39-35 approval margin, which is almost unchanged from 38-35. Strangely, Heller has improved with Democrats, 21% of whom now approve of his performance, but declined with his own party and with independents. Still, independents like Heller far more than Berkley. Unusually for politicians in this climate, both have more enthusiastic bases than antagonistic opposition.
“This seems like one of those races that will basically be tied for the whole next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The candidates have pretty much identical approval/favorability numbers, and they both hold their bases while splitting independents almost right down the middle. It would be hard for this contest to be any more evenly matched at this point in time.”
PPP surveyed 500 Nevada voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Shelley Berkley and Republican
Dean Heller, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 45%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q7 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%