Raleigh,
N.C. – Kay Hagan
leads seven different potential Republican challengers for her U.S. Senate
seat, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.
Hagan
has a 34% job approval rating with 36% disapproving of her and 31% not sure.
Only 49% of Democrats approve of Hagan’s job performance and 35% of Democrats
aren’t sure, indicating that Hagan needs to consolidate her party’s base of
support between now and 2014.
Similar
to PPP’s December poll, Hagan has at least a 6 point advantage (but no larger
than 10 points) over seven potential Republican challengers: 47/38 over Phil
Berger, 46/40 over Renee Ellmers, 47/40 over Virginia Foxx, 45/37 over George
Holding, 45/39 over Patrick McHenry, 46/38 over Robert Pittenger and 47/37 over
Thom Tillis.
“Kay
Hagan appears somewhat vulnerable in 2014, but the big question for Republicans
is whether or not they can find a strong statewide candidate to challenge the Democratic
incumbent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
The mix
of Republican candidates is slightly different from PPP’s December poll, but
the top choice of GOP voters is the same. Foxx comes out on top at 21%,
followed by McHenry (15%), Ellmers (11%), Pittenger (6%), Berger (5%), Hudson
(5%), Holding (2%) and Tillis (2%). 33% of respondents support someone else or
are not sure. Foxx (+8) and McHenry (+12) are the only candidates with net
positive favorability ratings among GOP primary voters.
The main
obstacle for the GOP’s possible candidates is that none of them are well-known
statewide. For the general election, Foxx has the highest name recognition of any
of the Republican candidates—but 51% of voters are not sure how they feel about
her.
PPP surveyed 608 North Carolina voters and 449 usual
Republican primary voters from January 10th to 13th. The margin
of error for the overall sample is +/-4.0% overall and +/-4.6% for the GOP
portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .34%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .31%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robert Pittenger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican George
Holding, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
George Holding……………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Patrick
McHenry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Patrick McHenry ……………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Robert
Pittenger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Robert Pittenger………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 47%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 18%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 17%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 16%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Holding?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick McHenry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robert Pittenger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q8 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Renee
Ellmers, Virginia Foxx, George Holding,
Richard Hudson, Patrick McHenry, Robert
Pittenger, and Thom Tillis, who would you most
like to see as the Republican candidate for
Senate in 2014?
Phil Berger …………. . 5%
Renee Ellmers ……. .11%
Virginia Foxx ………. .21%
George Holding…… . 2%
Richard Hudson ….. . 5%
Patrick McHenry …. .15%
Robert Pittenger….. . 6%
Thom Tillis …………. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….33%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q12 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 24%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 20%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 13%
