Raleigh, N.C.— The unpopularity of the North Carolina General
Assembly may be starting to take a toll on the Republican Party’s chances of
ousting freshman Sen. Kay Hagan next fall.
Last month, she led eight Republicans tested against her by margins of
only four to nine points. In this
month’s poll, that has shot up an average of six points.
None of Hagan’s improvement seems to be about her personally. The Democrat continues to have about a
break-even approval margin, with 43% approving and 45% disapproving of her job
performance, not much different from the 41-42 measured in June. But she has 49% of the vote in all eight
matchups, topping Phil Berger and Greg Brannon each by 10 points (39%), Thom
Tillis by 11 (38%), Virginia Foxx by 12 (37%), Renee Ellmers and Jim Cain by 13
(36%), Mark Harris by 14 (35%), and Lynn Wheeler by 15 (34%). In the previous poll, she led Berger by only
four points and Tillis by five.
Most of Hagan’s improvement has come with independents. She trailed the Republicans by an average of
13 points with unaffiliated voters in June, but now leads them by an average of
two, a turnaround of 15 points on the margin.
Berger and Tillis have seen their name identification rise by four to five
points in the last month, but that is not a good thing for them. Berger has moved from a -12 favorability spread
to -20, and Tillis from -9 to -20. Because
the GOP prospects remain largely unknown, undecideds in these matchups lean
Republican, but they do not like Gov. McCrory or the General Assembly much more
than they do Hagan or President Obama.
Foxx is again at the top of the GOP primary pack, with 16% to Berger, Cain,
and Ellmers’ 11%, Brannon’s 7%, Tillis’ 5%, Wheeler’s 3%, and Harris’ 1%. In a three-way, Berger edges Tillis 22-21,
with Ellmers at 18%. Tillis tops Ellmers
head-to-head, 32-25.
“North Carolinians continue to be closely divided on Kay Hagan,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But she’ll get a break if she can
run against the leadership of an extremely unpopular GOP legislature.”
PPP surveyed 600
North Carolina voters, including an oversample of 373 usual Republican primary
voters, between July 12th and 14th. The margin of error for
the overall survey is +/- 4.0%, and +/-5.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was
not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s
surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Cain, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Jim Cain…………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Lynn
Wheeler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Lynn Wheeler………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .27%
Q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q21 Who did you vote for Governor last year:
Walter Dalton or Pat McCrory?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 41%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q27 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 22%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q9 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Greg
Brannon, Jim Cain, Renee Ellmers, Virginia
Foxx, Mark Harris, Thom Tillis, and Lynn
Wheeler, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate in 2014?
Phil Berger …………. .11%
Greg Brannon …….. . 7%
Jim Cain…………….. .11%
Renee Ellmers ……. .11%
Virginia Foxx ………. .16%
Mark Harris ………… . 1%
Thom Tillis …………. . 5%
Lynn Wheeler……… . 3%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….35%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for US Senate
were just Phil Berger, Renee Ellmers, and
Thom Tillis, who would you vote for?
Phil Berger …………. .22%
Renee Ellmers ……. .18%
Thom Tillis …………. .21%
Not sure …………….. .39%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for US Senate
were just Renee Ellmers and Thom Tillis, who
would you vote for?
Renee Ellmers ……. .25%
Thom Tillis …………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .43%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q15 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 18%