Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of North
Carolina voters finds a tight, though slightly Democratic-leaning, Senate race
brewing for 2014. Senator Kay Hagan, who has a 41% approval rating compared to
42% who disapprove, is leading all likely Republican challengers by margins of
4%-9%. However, she has failed to secure 50% of the vote in any of the
hypothetical races, showing this race could get even tighter.
Within the
Republican Party, a clear consensus has not yet formed on who should represent
them in the Senate race, with the plurality of respondents (27%) saying they
were undecided or favored a candidate not listed. Representative Virginia Foxx
currently has a clear lead over the rest of the field, taking in 23% of the
vote, a good bit above the next most popular contender, State Senator Phil
Berger, who received 11%. NC Speaker of the House Thom Tillis and US
Representative Renee Ellmers tied for third with 9% of the vote each. The rest
of the candidates were, in order, Jim Cain (8%), Greg Brannon (7%), Mark Harris
(4%), and Lynn Wheeler (3%).
Unfortunately
for Republicans, Foxx looks like one of their less likely options to take
Hagan’s seat next year. Hagan currently leads Foxx 46% to 39%, including a lead
of 48% to 34% with women. Foxx, however, is the preferred choice of
independents, leading Hagan by a margin of 41% to 33%. Republicans’ second
choice, Berger, has slightly better odds, down only 44% to 40% to Hagan, and
leading 48% to 32% with independents. However, Berger’s unfavorable ratings are
higher than his favorable ratings across the board, including a 7%/24% split
with independents and a 17%/24% split with Republicans.
“Thom
Tillis may officially be in the Senate race now but Republican voters are still
shopping around for a different candidate,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Right now Virginia Foxx is the candidate they would
most like to see make the race.”
PPP surveyed 500 registered
voters between June 12-14, 2013, including 374 Republican primary voters. The
margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 4.4% and the margin of error for
the Republican primary sample is +/- 5.1%. This poll was not authorized or paid
for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 44%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 44%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Cain, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Jim Cain…………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Lynn
Wheeler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Lynn Wheeler………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .31%
Q20 Do you think Thom Tillis should resign as
Speaker of the House while running for the US
Senate?
He should…………… .37%
He should not……… .23%
Not sure …………….. .40%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q27 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 17%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q9 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Greg
Brannon, Jim Cain, Renee Ellmers, Virginia
Foxx, Mark Harris, Thom Tillis, and Lynn
Wheeler, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate in 2014?
Phil Berger …………. .11%
Greg Brannon …….. . 7%
Jim Cain…………….. . 8%
Renee Ellmers ……. . 9%
Virginia Foxx ………. .23%
Mark Harris ………… . 4%
Thom Tillis …………. . 9%
Lynn Wheeler……… . 3%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….27%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 9%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Q13 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 25%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 19%
910………………………………………………………… 10%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
