Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican candidates have the upper hand for keeping the South Carolina Governor’s office in their party’s control this fall, although the margins are not overwhelming.
The strongest GOP candidate, at least until Monday, was Nikki Haley. She led Vincent Sheheen 44-34 and Jim Rex 45-36 in hypothetical contests. In both cases she held a solid advantage with independents and was able to win more crossover support from Democrats than her opponents were from Republicans.
The GOP will also start out ahead for the general election if the party nominee ends up being either Henry McMaster or Gresham Barrett. McMaster leads Sheheen 43-36 and Rex 42-36, while Barrett leads Sheheen 43-33 and Rex 38-36.
The best hope for Democrats will be if Andre Bauer can somehow finagle the nomination. Rex leads him 40-38 in a head to head while Sheheen ties him at 38.
None of the candidates, with the exception of Bauer, are particularly well known at this point. For him being well known is a bad thing. 50% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to 21% with a positive one. A majority of voters have no opinion one way or the other about Barrett, Rex, and Sheheen and a plurality don’t have one about Haley or McMaster.
“The state of this race right now is pretty similar to how the Gubernatorial contest played out in 2002 and 2006,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The Republicans have an advantage but not an overwhelming one. The GOP is certainly favored but it has the potential to be a competitive race if the Democrats get some breaks.”
PPP surveyed 1,255 South Carolina voters, with a margin of error of +/-2.8%, from May 22nd to 23rd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gresham Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 57%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andre Bauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Rex?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nikki Haley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vincent Sheheen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 67%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Henry McMaster?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Gresham Barrett and Democrat
Jim Rex, who would you vote for?
Gresham Barrett ……………………………………… 38%
Jim Rex………………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Gresham Barrett and Democrat
Vincent Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Gresham Barrett ……………………………………… 43%
Vincent Sheheen …………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Andre Bauer and Democrat Jim
Rex, who would you vote for?
Andre Bauer…………………………………………….38%
Jim Rex………………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Andre Bauer and Democrat
Vincent Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Andre Bauer……………………………………………. 38%
Vincent Sheheen …………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Jim
Rex, who would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 45%
Jim Rex………………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vincent
Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 44%
Vincent Sheheen …………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Henry McMaster and Democrat
Jim Rex, who would you vote for?
Henry McMaster ……………………………………… 42%
Jim Rex………………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Henry McMaster and Democrat
Vincent Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Henry McMaster ……………………………………… 43%
Vincent Sheheen …………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 5%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 48%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other……………………………….. 21%
Q19 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
