Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans lead in all eight potential match ups to be the next Governor of Alabama by margins ranging from 5 to 16 points.
The strongest potential GOP candidate is Bradley Byrne. He leads Artur Davis 48-32 and Ron Sparks 43-30. Faring next best among the Republicans is Kay Ivey who has a 44-33 advantage over Davis and a 39-33 one over Sparks. Tim James leads Davis 42-33 and Sparks 38-33. Faring poorest among the Republican candidates is Roy Moore but he still has a 43-37 edge on Davis and a 42-37 one on Sparks.
Every one of the Republicans leads Davis among independent voters, by margins ranging from 5 to 16 points. Sparks does better with them leading James and Moore, tying Ivey, and trailing only Byrne. Republican voters are also more unified, generally giving a level of support in the 70s to their candidates compared to the 60s for the Democrats.
The candidates are largely unknown at this point with the exception of Moore and Davis. 67% of voters have an opinion about Moore and 55% do about Davis. A majority of voters are ambivalent toward the rest of the candidates. 64% have no opinion about Byrne and the same is true for 56% of voters when it comes to Ivey, 61% for James, and 60% for Sparks.
Outgoing Republican Governor Bob Riley has seen a large drop in his support, with 50% of voters disapproving of him to only 36% giving him good marks.
“Democrats are struggling in a lot of typically blue states this year so it’s no surprise to see them behind in Alabama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Roy Moore getting the GOP nomination is their best hope.”
PPP surveyed 1,270 Alabama voters from March 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
Riley’s job performance? If you approve, press
1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bradley Byrne? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Artur Davis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kay Ivey? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 56%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim James? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 61%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Moore? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 33%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Sparks? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 60%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Bradley Byrne and Democrat Artur
Davis, who would you vote for? If Bradley
Byrne, press 1. If Artur Davis, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Byrne …………………………………………………….. 48%
Davis……………………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Kay Ivey and Democrat Artur
Davis, who would you vote for? If Kay Ivey,
press 1. If Artur Davis, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Ivey ……………………………………………………….. 44%
Davis……………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Tim James and Democrat Artur
Davis, who would you vote for? If Tim James,
press 1. If Artur Davis, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
James ……………………………………………………. 42%
Davis……………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Artur
Davis, who would you vote for? If Roy Moore,
press 1. If Artur Davis, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Moore ……………………………………………………. 43%
Davis……………………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Bradley Byrne and Democrat Ron
Sparks, who would you vote for? If Bradley
Byrne, press 1. If Ron Sparks, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Byrne …………………………………………………….. 43%
Sparks …………………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Kay Ivey and Democrat Ron
Sparks, who would you vote for? If Kay Ivey,
press 1. If Ron Sparks, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Ivey ……………………………………………………….. 39%
Sparks …………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Tim James and Democrat Ron
Sparks, who would you vote for? If Tim James,
press 1. If Ron Sparks, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
James ……………………………………………………. 38%
Sparks …………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Ron
Sparks, who would you vote for? If Roy Moore,
press 1. If Ron Sparks, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Moore ……………………………………………………. 42%
Sparks …………………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q16 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 57%
Obama…………………………………………………… 41%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 3%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Conservative…………………………………………… 50%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q20 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 24%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
