Raleigh, N.C. – Attorney General Terry Goddard continues to beat all potential GOP opponents in the race to be Arizona’s next governor—including a potential wild card who is even more popular than Goddard.
Though his favorability rating is down from the last time PPP polled the race in September 2009 (44-22 then, 39-27 now), he is still more popular than current Governor Jan Brewer, whose job approval is 35-46, and all the other Republican contenders except Sherriff Joe Arpaio, who rates a 53-38. A lightning rod, only 9% of the state’s voters have no opinion of Arpaio, versus 18, 33, and 68, respectively, for Brewer, Goddard, and State Treasurer Dean Martin, the statewide-elected officials.
Goddard tops both Brewer and Arpaio 47-44, Martin 47-36, Buz Mills 45-37, and John Munger 46-31. Munger (4-11) is the only candidate with a net negative favorability rating, but Martin (19-13) and Mills (18-16) are seen only narrowly positively. Brewer has improved her standing since last September, when her job performance was rated 26-43.
Interestingly, Arpaio has only a 15-point net negative favorability mark among the state’s large bloc of Hispanic voters.
“The remainder of the race could hinge on the popularity of the controversial new immigration law which Brewer signed, Goddard opposes, and Arpaio, naturally, has lauded,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Brewer and Arpaio could both beat Goddard if they rally illegal immigration opponents.”
PPP will release results on the Arizona Senate race later in the week.
PPP surveyed 813 Arizona voters from April 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Arpaio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Goddard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Martin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buz Mills?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 65%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Munger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Joe Arpaio and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
Joe Arpaio………………………………………………. 44%
Terry Goddard ………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Jan Brewer and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
Jan Brewer……………………………………………… 44%
Terry Goddard ………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Dean Martin and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
Dean Martin ……………………………………………. 36%
Terry Goddard ………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Buz Mills and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
Buz Mills ………………………………………………… 37%
Terry Goddard ………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican John Munger and Democrat Terry
Goddard, who would you vote for?
John Munger…………………………………………… 31%
Terry Goddard ………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q12 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 51%
Obama…………………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
