Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich’s momentum is continuing to build, and he now leads Mitt Romney by over 25 points in both Florida and Montana.
In Florida Gingrich is at 47% to 17% for Romney, 15% for Herman Cain, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Jon Huntsman, 2% for Rick Perry, 1% for Rick Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.
In Montana Gingrich is at 37% to 12% for Paul, 11% for Romney, 10% for Bachmann and Cain, 5% for Perry, 3% for Huntsman, and 1% for Johnson and Santorum.
The magnitude of Gingrich’s leads now is an indication that he’s appealing to every segment of the Republican electorate. He’s up with the Tea Party in both states (53% to 24% for Cain and 7% for Romney in Florida, 42% to 18% for Bachmann, 13% for Cain, 10% for Paul, and 5% for Romney in Montana.) But he’s winning over party moderates as well (33% to 22% for Romney in Florida, 31% to 17% for Romney in Montana.) Gingrich’s favorability in Florida is 72/21 and in Montana it’s 65/23.
As strong as Gingrich is in these polls there’s still evidence he could get stronger. Despite his troubles this week, which voters may not yet be fully aware of, Cain hit double digits on both of these polls. If his declining support bottoms out after the newest set of revelations, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. 45% of Cain voters in Florida say he is their second choice to only 13% for Romney and in Montana Cain backers prefer Newt over Romney 35-11 as a back up.
“Newt Gingrich is polling better than any other Republican candidate has at any point this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it remains to be seen whether he can avoid just being the latest flavor of the month.”
PPP surveyed 470 Republican primary voters in Florida and 700 Republican primary voters in Montana from November 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the Florida survey is +/-4.5% and for the Montana survey it’s +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Florida Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Hasner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q11 The Republican candidates for Senate are
Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Connie Mack
IV, Mike McCalister, and Craig Miller. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Adam Hasner………………………………………….. 3%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 12%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 40%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 4%
Craig Miller……………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q12 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 47%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q13 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 44%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 56%
Q14 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Do you agree or disagree with Newt Gingrich’s
opinions about illegal immigration?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 57%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Montana Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Essmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Neil Livingstone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Jeff Essmann, Bob Fanning, Rick Hill, Neil
Livingstone, Jim Lynch, Ken Miller, Jim O’Hara,
and Corey Stapleton, who would you vote for?
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 5%
Bob Fanning …………………………………………… 1%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 37%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 3%
Jim Lynch……………………………………………….. 4%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 10%
Jim O’Hara……………………………………………… 3%
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 35%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q12 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 33%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 67%
Q13 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q15 Do you agree or disagree with Newt Gingrich’s
opinions about illegal immigration?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 46%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
