Raleigh, N.C. – Despite moving to a likely-voter model that shows an Illinois electorate less favorable to him than to Mark Kirk and much less favorable to favorite son President Obama, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias now leads Kirk for Obama’s Senate seat, 37% to 35%, similar to the 31-30 margin in PPP’s last poll of the race in June. Giannoulias has treaded water, despite Kirk gaining favor among independents, partially because Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones’ support has dwindled from 14% to 9% overall, and from 15% to 8% among Democrats.
The likely electorate has much stronger opinions, particularly when it comes to Giannoulias, whose 23-31 personal favorability margin in June, identical to Kirk’s then, is now 26-42, while Kirk’s sits at 26-34. Partisans are more for their nominee and against the opponent, while independents are more down on both, particularly Giannoulias.
Giannoulias also loses the ethics battle. 28% of likely voters believe Kirk to be an ethical person, with 25% thinking him unethical, but while slightly more, 30%, think Giannoulias ethical, significantly more, 35% think he is unethical. Republicans and independents are far more negative on Giannoulias than Democrats are on Kirk.
In an electorate that reports voting for President Obama over John McCain by only 9 points, versus the 25-point actual result, President Obama’s approval rating is only 49-46, to 53-41 last time, in a 19-point Obama electorate. Appointed replacement Roland Burris has the second worst job approval rating of 52 senators PPP has polled on in 2010, posting a 20-55 mark, essentially identical to June’s 19-54.
“Illinoisans who plan to vote in November don’t view Alexi Giannoulias or Roland Burris or even Barack Obama very positively, but they’re still barely willing to give Giannoulias the nod to keep the Obama-Burris seat because he’s a Democrat in a Democratic state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 576 likely Illinois voters from August 14th to 15th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 49%
Disapprove………… 46%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 45%
No opinion………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roland Burris’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 20%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 42%
Not sure ……………. 32%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
Favorable……………. 26%
Unfavorable ………… 34%
Not sure ……………… 40%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeAlan Jones?
Favorable……………. 4%
Unfavorable ………… 12%
Not sure ……………… 84%
Q8 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi
Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, and Green
Party candidate LeAlan Jones. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Alexi Giannoulias …………………………………….. 37%
Mark Kirk………………………………………………… 35%
LeAlan Jones ………………………………………….. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Do you think that Mark Kirk is an ethical or
unethical person?
Ethical……………………………………………………. 28%
Unethical………………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q10 Do you think that Alexi Giannoulias is an
ethical or unethical person?
Ethical……………………………………………………. 30%
Unethical………………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
