Raleigh, N.C.-PPP’s monthly
North Carolina Senate poll finds Kay Hagan leading or tying all potential
challengers. For the first time, Cherie Berry ties Hagan at 45%. Hagan leads
Phil Berger 46%-42%. The Senator comes in ahead of Greg Brannon 49%-40% and Jim
Cain 48%-41%. Hagan bests Virginia Foxx 49%-42%. She leads Mark Harris 46%-40%.
Hagan beats out Lynn Wheeler by a 48%-37% margin. The very-likely candidates
Thom Tillis and Renee Ellmers each trail Hagan, at 48%-41% and 48%-39%,
respectively.
Virginia
Foxx holds a slight lead in the contest for the Republican nomination. 15% of
Republican primary voters support her, to Cherie Berry’s 14%. Renee Ellmers
also makes it into double digits, at 10%. The Ron Paul-style libertarian Brannon
garners the support of 7% of Republicans. Jim Cain gets 4% of the vote, and
Lynn Wheeler wins 3%. Thom Tillis’s self-promotion continues not to yield
results. With 6% of the vote, the state House Speaker finishes third-worst.
“Although
she doesn’t receive as much attention as some of the other potential candidates
Cherie Berry is currently the Republican who polls strongest against Kay
Hagan,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. ‘She’s a rare
North Carolina politician who is seen in a favorable light by both Democrats
and Republicans.”
Among
Republican primary voters, Virginia Foxx is the most popular potential
candidate. The Congresswoman is seen favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 19%.
Berry comes in close, with 31% favorable and 21% unfavorable. Tillis is also in
positive territory: 21% like him, and 18% dislike him. Cain sits at 8%-14%. Brannon
has a 6%-16% spread. Mark Harris has a 9% favorable rating to 12% unfavorable.
8% have favorable views of Lynn Wheeler to 16% whose opinions are unfavorable.
Despite his recent foray into self-marketing, Phil Berger’s numbers stand at
13% positive and 22% negative.
For
the first time this year, voters register a strongly positive assessment of
Hagan’s job performance. 46% report positive opinions to 40% who see her
negatively. Senator Richard Burr’s numbers remain split, at 38%-40%. President
Obama’s approval rating has dipped substantially, to 45% positive and 53%
negative.
PPP surveyed 500 North Carolina voters and 366
Republican primary voters from May 17-20, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 4.4%.
The margin of error for the Republican primary was 5.1%. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Phil
Berger, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Phil Berger ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Cherie
Berry, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 45%
Cherie Berry……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Jim
Cain, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Jim Cain…………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Renee
Ellmers, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Renee Ellmers ………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Virginia
Foxx, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 49%
Virginia Foxx …………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 46%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q20 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Lynn
Wheeler, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 48%
Lynn Wheeler………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q21 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .38%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q22 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks for all gun sales, including
gun shows and the Internet?
Support ……………… .81%
Oppose ……………… .16%
Not sure …………….. . 3%
Q23 If the Senate took another vote on expanded
background checks, and Richard Burr changed
his vote from being against them to supporting
them, would that make you more or less likely
to support him in the next election?
More likely………………………………………………. 49%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 22%
Wouldn’t make a difference……………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q24 How important is it to you that immigration
reform legislation includes a pathway to
citizenship for the 11 million immigrants living in
the US without legal status: very important,
somewhat important, or not at all important?
Very important…………………………………………. 49%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 28%
Not at all important…………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q29 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q30 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q31 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Berger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cherie Berry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Renee Ellmers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virginia Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lynn Wheeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q10 Given the choices of Phil Berger, Cherie Berry,
Greg Brannon, Jim Cain, Renee Ellmers,
Virginia Foxx, Mark Harris, Thom Tillis, and
Lynn Wheeler, who would you most like to see
as the Republican candidate for Senate in
2014?
Phil Berger …………. .10%
Cherie Berry……….. .14%
Greg Brannon …….. . 7%
Jim Cain…………….. . 4%
Renee Ellmers ……. .10%
Virginia Foxx ………. .15%
Mark Harris ………… . 3%
Thom Tillis …………. . 6%
Lynn Wheeler……… . 3%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….28%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q14 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 26%
704………………………………………………………… 16%
828………………………………………………………… 19%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
