Raleigh, N.C. – Given a list of seven candidates who may yet decide to run for governor, about a fifth of North Carolinians who typically vote in Democratic primaries want Bob Etheridge to be their nominee this fall, and he has a sight lead over his competitors in five other iterations of the race. But roughly two-fifths are undecided in each of these permutations, and Etheridge’s slim advantage is built mostly on name recognition.
21% would like Etheridge to be their standard bearer, while 13% prefer State Sen. Dan Blue, 10% Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, 8% Rep. Brad Miller, 7% former State Treas. Richard Moore, 6% Rep. Mike McIntyre, and 2% State Rep. Bill Faison. A third are not sure.
Among just the candidates in the race so far, Etheridge leads with 30% to Dalton’s 24% and Faison’s 6%, with 39% undecided. Miller and Blue would be initially the most threatening to the status quo, each earning 11% and pulling Etheridge down to 24% and Dalton to 20%. Moore would start with 8% and McIntyre with 7%.
About half of these voters have an opinion on Etheridge personally, and he is the most popular as well, with 31% seeing him favorably and 19% unfavorably. But at this early stage of the race, his closest competitor is known to only 41% of voters, and others by as little as 29%. Miller is about as equally liked as Etheridge (26-15). The least known and liked was one of the first in the race, Faison, of whom 71% have no opinion; those that do fall at 9-20.
“Bob Etheridge starts out as the nominal favorite in the Democratic Governor’s race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But with a large mass of voters undecided the race is pretty wide open.”
Mitt Romney has gained on Newt Gingrich in the Republican primary since last month, when Gingrich barely led Rick Santorum and Romney, 25-24-22. Now, Gingrich and Romney each earn 30% of the vote to Santorum’s 20% and Ron Paul’s 11%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Democratic primary voters and 819 usual Republican primary voters from February 3rd to 5th. The margin of error for the Democratic survey is +/-4.9%, and +/-3.4% for the Republican survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Blue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Etheridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McIntyre?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brad Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Moore?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q8 Given the choices of Dan Blue, Walter Dalton,
Bob Etheridge, Bill Faison, Mike McIntyre, Brad
Miller, and Richard Moore, who would you
most like to see as the Democratic candidate
for Governor?
Dan Blue………………………………………………… 13%
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 10%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 21%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 2%
Mike McIntyre …………………………………………. 6%
Brad Miller………………………………………………. 8%
Richard Moore ………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q9 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Walter Dalton, Bob Etheridge, Bill
Faison, and Dan Blue, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 20%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 24%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 4%
Dan Blue………………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Walter Dalton, Bob Etheridge, Bill
Faison, and Mike McIntyre, who would you
vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 22%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 25%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 6%
Mike McIntyre …………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q11 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Walter Dalton, Bob Etheridge, Bill
Faison, and Brad Miller, who would you vote
for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 20%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 24%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 4%
Brad Miller………………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q12 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Walter Dalton, Bob Etheridge, Bill
Faison, and Richard Moore, who would you
vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 21%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 24%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 5%
Richard Moore ………………………………………… 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q13 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Walter Dalton, Bob Etheridge, and
Bill Faison, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 24%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 30%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 14%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 86%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 57%
African-American …………………………………….. 34%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q19
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 25%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 45%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 55%
Q7 Who is your second choice for President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .42%
Newt Gingrich …….. .45%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .67%
Ron Paul ……………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……….. .45%
Rick Santorum……. .44%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
