Raleigh, N.C. – Half of Nevadans disapprove of John Ensign’s job performance, only a little more than a third approve, and almost three in five think he should not run for re-election to the Senate next year. In that environment, it is no surprise he cannot beat even the least known Democrat tested against him. But if he steps aside or is defeated in a primary, 2nd-District Rep. Dean Heller would be a formidable opponent for Democrats hoping to flip this seat and offset potential losses elsewhere in the country. Heller currently leads every Democrat Ensign lags behind, doing an average of 14 points better on the margin than the incumbent.
Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman tops Ensign, 45-35, but lags Heller, 38-45. Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto beats Ensign, 44-42, but is behind Heller, 37-46. 1st-District Rep. Shelley Berkley beats Ensign, 45-42, but trails Heller, 38-51. Finally, Secretary of State Ross Miller barely edges Ensign, 40-39, but falls behind, 34-46, to Heller. Heller generally does much better than Ensign because he opens huge leads with independents, with whom Ensign ties or narrowly trails. But even more important than that, Heller pulls much more Democratic support and retains much more Republican support than does Ensign, who generally only matches Democrats in party unity.
All of Ensign’s potential replacements from both parties are viewed in a positive light, an unusual occurrence in this toxic environment for politicians. Goodman (45-21) and Heller (46-23) are both the best known and by far the best liked, but Masto (37-28) and Berkley (34-29) both do well. Though 50% have no opinion of him (less than 40% for all the others), those who do know Miller break down more than 2:1 for him, 34-16.
“John Ensign’s poll numbers are pretty atrocious,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans have a decent chance of keeping this seat despite the state’s recent blue trend but they may need someone to take the incumbent out in the primary in order to do that.”
On another front, 68% of voters think the GOP should have nominated someone other than Sharron Angle against Harry Reid. That view is held across the board, by 66% of Democrats and 73% of independents, but even 68% of Republicans regret their choice.
PPP surveyed 932 Nevada voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you think Republicans should have
nominated someone different than Sharron
Angle to run against Harry Reid last year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 68%
No …………………………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Ensign’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you think John Ensign should run for
reelection next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dean Heller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Oscar Goodman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Catherine Cortez Masto?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ross Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican John Ensign and Democrat Shelley
Berkley, who would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 42%
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley
Berkley, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 51%
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican John Ensign and Democrat Oscar
Goodman, who would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 35%
Oscar Goodman ……………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Oscar
Goodman, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 45%
Oscar Goodman ……………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican John Ensign and Democrat
Catherine Cortez Masto, who would you vote
for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 42%
Catherine Cortez Masto ……………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat
Catherine Cortez Masto, who would you vote
for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 46%
Catherine Cortez Masto ……………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican John Ensign and Democrat Ross
Miller, who would you vote for?
John Ensign……………………………………………. 39%
Ross Miller ……………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q17 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Ross
Miller, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 46%
Ross Miller ……………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q21 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
