Polls

Dems strong for WV gov. unless GOP nominates Capito

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – Though yesterday’s release showed her still down by nine points to Joe Manchin, Shelley Moore Capito is not only the GOP’s strongest potential candidate for U.S. Senate, but also for West Virginia’s state house.  She is the only of four Republicans who consistently beats the four Democrats tested for this fall’s gubernatorial race.

Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin has a strong 42-20 job approval margin, though 39% are still unsure of their feelings on his performance, only a couple months into his term.  Tomblin beats every Republican but Capito, and trails her only 40-48.  Against state senator Clark Barnes, he prevails, 54-22, though more than three-quarters of the state’s voters have no opinion on Barnes.  Tomblin leads former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, 49-32.  Ireland has a decent 33-19 favorability rating, though almost half are unsure.  Tomblin also bests state GOP chairman Mike Stuart, 53-20.  Stuart is a non-entity to 80% of West Virginians.

At 43-19, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant is equally as popular as the governor, but Capito beats her, 49-37.  Tennant, however, posts a 49-23 lead over Barnes, 43-32 over Ireland, and 48-22 over Stuart.

Only about half know enough about State Treasurer John Perdue to say how they feel about him, but those who do rate him moderately well, at 29-19.  He lags Capito, 33-52, but tops Barnes, 41-23, and Stuart, 41-21, and ties Ireland at 37%.

Those who are familiar with House Speaker Rick Thompson are split evenly on him, but he is an unknown to two-thirds of the state.  As such, he is the only Democrat to trail Ireland, 31-37, and has the largest deficit to Capito, 29-54.  But he does lead Barnes, 34-24, and Stuart, 33-22.

“Shelley Moore Capito is really the elephant in the room when it comes to this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If she ends up deciding to get in she’ll be the prohibitive favorite.  But if she doesn’t either Tomblin or Tennant look like they would pretty comfortably keep the office in Democratic hands.”

PPP surveyed 1,105 West Virginia voters from January 20th to 23rd.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 42%
Disapprove………… 20%
Not sure ……………. 39%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clark Barnes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Betty Ireland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Perdue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Stuart?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 40%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Clark Barnes, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 54%
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 22%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 49%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin and Republican
Mike Stuart, who would you vote for?
Earl Ray Tomblin……………………………………… 53%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 33%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Clark
Barnes, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 41%
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 36%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Betty
Ireland, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 37%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat John Perdue and Republican Mike
Stuart, who would you vote for?
John Perdue …………………………………………… 41%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 38%

Q17 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 37%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q18 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Clark Barnes, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 49%
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%

Q19 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 43%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%

Q20 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican
Mike Stuart, who would you vote for?
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 48%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 22%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%

Q21 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Shelley Moore Capito, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 29%
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q22 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Clark Barnes, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 34%
Clark Barnes …………………………………………… 24%
Undecided………………………………………………. 43%

Q23 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Betty Ireland, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 31%
Betty Ireland……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 32%

Q24 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Rick Thompson and Republican
Mike Stuart, who would you vote for?
Rick Thompson……………………………………….. 33%
Mike Stuart……………………………………………… 22%
Undecided………………………………………………. 45%

Q25 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%

Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 57%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%

Q28 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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