Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s monthly look at the 2016 Republican field for President finds essentially
a 4 way tie at the top- Marco Rubio has 16%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie 15%
each, and Rand Paul 14%. Paul Ryan at 9%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5%,
Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Susana Martinez at 1% round out the potential
candidates we tested.
It’s now been almost 6 months since we started doing regular polling of the
2016 race. The only candidate who’s shown any real momentum over that period of
time is Paul, whose support has doubled from 7% to 14%. Rubio’s shift from 18%
to 16%, Bush’s from 12% to 15%, and Christie’s from 14 to 15% are all within the
margin of error. It is worth noting though that this is the first time Rubio
hasn’t held at least a 4 point lead over the other Republican contenders.
There hasn’t been much movement on the Democratic side either. Hillary
Clinton leads with 63% to 13% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Mark
Warner and Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O’Malley, and 1% each for Kirsten
Gillibrand, Deval Patrick, and Brian Schweitzer. Clinton led Biden 61-12 when
we started polling on this in December. Clinton has at least 58% support with
liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, Hispanics, young
voters, and seniors- in other words every key segment of the Democratic
electorate.
Chris Christie continues to be the only potential Republican candidate who
polls competitively with Clinton, trailing her just 47/44. Christie has a 40/32
favorability with Democrats, making him the only potential 2016 contender with
any crossover appeal. Clinton holds identical 10 point leads at 51/41 over Paul
and Rubio.
“Benghazi isn’t having much impact on Hillary Clinton’s viability in a
potential 2016 campaign,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“She continues to lead the Democratic field and the top Republican candidate
possibilities.”
PPP surveyed 1,099 registered voters between May 6-9,
2013, including oversamples of 589 Democratic primary voters and 806 Republican
primary voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0% for the overall survey, +/-4.0%
for the Democratic portion, and +/-3.5% for the Republican portion. This poll
was not paid for or authorized by any campaign of political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q24 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Marco
Rubio, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q29 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez,
Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 7%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 16%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 13%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 63%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Andrew
Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley,
Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner,
and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like
to see as the Democratic candidate for
President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 38%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 13%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 10%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 26%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 25%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 5%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 5%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 6%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 4%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 38%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 85%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 6%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
