Polls

Democrats lead the way in Colorado

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP’s newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper’s approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What’s happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we’ve found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he’s at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.

With no serious Republicans running for either of these offices yet we basically tested every major GOP figure in the state against both Hickenlooper and Udall: former Congressman Bob Beauprez, Congressman Cory Gardner, Secretary of State Scott Gessler, 2010 Senate candidate Jane Norton, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Attorney General John Suthers, former Congressman Tom Tancredo, and Congressman Scott Tipton.

Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating. The one who comes closest is Suthers, who still has a -6 favorability rating. In addition to being unliked the GOP bench is also largely unknown- the only one with higher than 52% name recognition is Tancredo.

Only one of the Republicans comes within single digits of Hickenlooper or Udall in any of the match ups. That’s Beauprez who trails each of them by 7- 50/43 against Hickenlooper and 48/41 against Udall.

Hickenlooper leads everyone else we tested by either 10 or 11 points- 50/40 over Gessler, 49/39 over Suthers, 50/40 over Tipton, 51/40 over Gardner, 50/39 over Norton, 49/38 over Stapleton, and 52/41 over Tancredo.

Udall leads everyone else we tested by margins ranging from 10-13 points. It’s 49/39 over Gardner, 49/38 over Norton, 50/38 over Suthers, 51/39 over Tancredo, and 50/37 over Gessler, Stapleton, and Tipton.

“John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall look like clear favorites for reelection at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “When the strongest potential Republican candidate is someone who lost a 2006 Gubernatorial race by 17 points it’s a sign that the GOP bench in the state is very weak.”

PPP surveyed 500 Colorado voters from April 11th to 14th. The margin of error is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Beauprez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Gardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Gessler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jane Norton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walker Stapleton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Suthers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Tipton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Bob Beauprez, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Cory Gardner, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 51%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Scott Gessler, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Jane Norton, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Jane Norton ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Walker Stapleton, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 49%
Walker Stapleton……………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
John Suthers, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 49%
John Suthers…………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Tom Tancredo, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 52%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Scott Tipton, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Scott Tipton…………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q19 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob
Beauprez, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 48%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q20 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Cory
Gardner, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 49%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q21 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Scott
Gessler, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 50%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q22 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Jane
Norton, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 49%
Jane Norton ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q23 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Walker
Stapleton, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 50%
Walker Stapleton……………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q24 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican John
Suthers, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 50%
John Suthers…………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q25 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Tom
Tancredo, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 51%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q26 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Scott
Tipton, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 50%
Scott Tipton…………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q30 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 17%

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