Raleigh, N.C. – Add South Carolina to the list of states where Mike Huckabee is showing early strength in the Republican presidential primary race. That is, unless native son Jim DeMint enters the race.
DeMint would take his own state’s primary with 24% to Huckabee’s 20%, Mitt Romney’s 17%, Sarah Palin’s 12%, Newt Gingrich’s 10%, Ron Paul’s 4%, Tim Pawlenty’s 3%, and Mitch Daniels’ 2%. In the likely event DeMint does not run, Huckabee would prevail with 26% to Romney’s 20%, Palin’s 18%, Gingrich’s 13%, Paul’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 4%, and Daniels’ 3%. Romney shows his usual small advantage with moderates, but they only make up only 31% of the electorate. The two-thirds who call themselves conservative favor Huckabee by a wide margin, with Palin, Romney, and Gingrich all essentially tied at least ten points back.
Though he does surprisingly well amidst four Southerners and several more conservative candidates, Romney has a bit of a ceiling. He gets the fourth most amount of second-choice votes, and benefits less than Huckabee and Palin, and equally as much as Gingrich and Paul, from DeMint’s absence. But perhaps the biggest disappointment is for neighboring Georgia’s Gingrich, who would seem to have to win this primary to get the nomination. When PPP last polled the contest in May 2010, he placed first, narrowly over Romney, Palin, and Huckabee. The latter is the only candidate to have gained since then.
In addition to the four usual frontrunners and DeMint, PPP tested the favorability ratings for the three other candidates named above and six other potential entrants into what should be a crowded, muddy race. Most are still almost complete non-entities to even these hardcore early-primary voters.
“We’ve now polled all the key early Republican contests in the last few months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Huckabee leads in Iowa and South Carolina while Romney leads in New Hampshire and Nevada. If we were voting this year the nomination would probably come down to one of them but we’ll have to see what darkhorse candidates emerge over the next 11 months.”
PPP surveyed 559 South Carolina Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
DeMint’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 77%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you think that Jim DeMint should run for
President next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 40%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Do you think Newt Gingrich is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 12%
Too conservative……………………………………… 13%
About right ……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Do you think Mike Huckabee is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 12%
About right ……………………………………………… 73%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Do you think Sarah Palin is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 6%
Too conservative……………………………………… 21%
About right ……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Do you think Mitt Romney is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 18%
Too conservative……………………………………… 7%
About right ……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 Do you think Jim DeMint is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 3%
Too conservative……………………………………… 13%
About right ……………………………………………… 73%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mormonism?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Haley Barbour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Daniels?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 89%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Thune?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q23 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Jim DeMint, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Jim DeMint……………………………………………… 24%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q24 If Jim DeMint didn’t run and the Republican
candidates for President next year were just
Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 26%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q25 Who would your second choice be as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 16%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 9%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 42%
Q26 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party?
Support ………………………………………………….. 78%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q27 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q28 Do you think the Republican Party is too
conservative, too liberal, or about right?
Too conservative……………………………………… 10%
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 25%
About right ……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q29 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
Q30 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q31 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 81%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q32 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
