Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Florida
poll finds…basically the same thing as the last one six months ago. Charlie
Crist leads Rick Scott by a 12 point margin, 50/38. He has a substantial
advantage because he leads by 24 points with independents at 57/33, and because
he wins over 21% of the Republican vote while losing just 17% of Democrats to
Scott.
Crist’s early lead has a lot more to do with Scott than it has to do with
Crist. Voters in the state are evenly divided on their former Governor, with
43% of them viewing him positively to 42% with an unfavorable opinion. But
Scott continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country, with
only 33% approving of his job performance to 55% who disapprove.
There are only 5 Governors we’ve polled on who have a worse net approval
rating than Scott. He’s seen almost no improvement in his numbers from six
months ago when we found his approval at 33/57.
We also tested Nan Rich in a hypothetical match up with Scott and despite
having only an 8% statewide favorability rating- speaking to the fact that
she’s not very well known- she still trails Scott by only a 37/36 margin.
Rich will start out in a big deficit for the primary if Crist does
eventually decide to run though. We find him leading her 59/16 in a
hypothetical contest, winning clear majorities of liberals, moderates, men,
women, Hispanics, white, African Americans, and voters across all age groups.
Of course Crist has started out with a big lead in a primary contest and seen
it fade before, but he would at least begin a campaign in a very strong
position.
“Rick Scott continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the
country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His numbers
have remained basically static over the course of this year and he’ll need a
big improvement over the next 13 months if he’s going to get reelected.”
PPP surveyed 579 Florida
voters from September 27th-29th. The margin of error is +/-4.1%. This
poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization.
PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .55%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie
Crist, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 38%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Nan
Rich, who would you vote for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 37%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 67%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nan Rich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Governor next
year were Charlie Crist and Nan Rich, who
would you vote for?
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 59%
Nan Rich………………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 14%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%