Raleigh, N.C. – Already probably the most endangered governor running for re-election next fall, Tom Corbett’s chances of winning have only slipped further since PPP last polled Pennsylvania in March, and he is now the most unpopular governor of 43 on which PPP has polled. Only a quarter of Pennsylvanians approve of their governor’s job performance, with almost two-thirds disapproving (24-65), a drop of 17 points on the margin from the previous poll (33-58).
Corbett now earns only 30-33% of the vote, and trails even the most unknown of seven potential Democratic opponents by 12 to 20 points. He lags Jack Wagner 50-30, John Hanger 51-32, Rob McCord 50-31, Allyson Schwartz 48-33, Katie McGinty 47-32, Ed Pawlowski 45-33, and Tom Wolf 44-32. In March, Corbett’s deficits were seven to 11 points against Hanger, McCord, Schwartz, and Wolf. He is doing an average of almost seven points worse now. Wagner (45% name recognition) and Schwartz (42%) are the best-known Democrats, with the others between 25% and 31%.
Because of his challengers’ anonymity, the race is clearly a referendum on Corbett himself. His unpopularity is enough to give the Democrats leads of 22 to 39 points with independents. They also earn an astonishing 23% to 27% of the GOP vote, with Corbett taking only 9% to 13% of Democrats.
GOP voters continue to give Corbett slightly negative ratings, indicating potential difficulty even getting out of the May primary. He seems to have a ceiling of 42%–he gets that number versus an unnamed “someone else” and against Congressmen Jim Gerlach and Mike Kelly, neither of whom has yet indicated he will run. Among Democrats, Schwartz is the nominal early favorite, at 21% to Wagner’s 17%, McCord’s 10%, McGinty’s 9%, Hanger’s 8%, with everyone else at 4% or less and 27% undecided.
“Tom Corbett’s situation just keeps getting worse when it was already pretty darn bad,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It may be that the only chance Republicans have to hold onto this office next year is for him to step aside.”
PPP surveyed 693 Pennsylvania voters, including an oversample of 491 usual Republican primary voters and 436 Democratic primary voters, from November 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7%, +/-4.4% for the GOP sample, and +/-4.7% for the Democratic portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 24%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hanger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kelly?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McCord?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Katie McGinty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Pawlowski?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allyson Schwartz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Wagner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat John
Hanger, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 32%
John Hanger …………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Rob
McCord, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 31%
Rob McCord……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Katie
McGinty, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 32%
Katie McGinty …………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Ed
Pawlowski, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 33%
Ed Pawlowski………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Allyson
Schwartz, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 33%
Allyson Schwartz……………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Jim Gerlach and Democrat Allyson
Schwartz, who would you vote for?
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 31%
Allyson Schwartz……………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Mike Kelly and Democrat Allyson
Schwartz, who would you vote for?
Mike Kelly ………………………………………………. 33%
Allyson Schwartz……………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Jack
Wagner, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 30%
Jack Wagner…………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q20 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Tom
Wolf, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 32%
Tom Wolf………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q26 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hanger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McCord?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Katie McGinty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Pawlowski?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allyson Schwartz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Wagner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q8 Given the choices of John Hanger, JoEllen Litz,
Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, Max Myers, Ed
Pawlowski, Allyson Schwartz, Jack Wagner,
and Tom Wolf, who would you most like the
Democratic candidate for Governor to be next
year?
John Hanger …………………………………………… 8%
JoEllen Litz …………………………………………….. 2%
Rob McCord……………………………………………. 10%
Katie McGinty …………………………………………. 9%
Max Myers ……………………………………………… 2%
Ed Pawlowski………………………………………….. 4%
Allyson Schwartz……………………………………… 21%
Jack Wagner…………………………………………… 17%
Tom Wolf………………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 17%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 32%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kelly?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Tom Corbett or someone else?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else…………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Tom Corbett and Jim Gerlach, who
would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 42%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Tom Corbett and Mike Kelly, who
would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 42%
Mike Kelly ………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%