Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Colorado poll finds that the Senate race remains very competitive, although not that much closer with Cory Gardner in the race than it was with Ken Buck. Our last poll of the state, in early December, found Mark Udall leading Buck by 4 points. Udall starts out with a 2 point lead over Cory Gardner at 42/40. The close division mirrors how voters feel about Udall’s job performance- 41% approve and 40% disapprove of him, almost identical to where we found him in December.
Udall would have wider leads if one of the other Republican candidates was to win the primary. He would lead Owen Hill 43/38 and Randy Baumgardner 44/37. Gardner’s entry into the race has broken open the GOP primary field though. Gardner’s now at 44% to 15% for Baumgardner, 6% for Hill, 4% for Tom Janich, and 3% for Mark Aspiri.
Things are looking up for Democrats in the Colorado Governor’s race though. John Hickenlooper’s approval rating is back on positive ground at 48/41, after slipping into negative territory on our December poll. Hickenlooper’s also back to having double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. Bob Beauprez comes closest at 48/38, followed by Scott Gessler at 48/36, Tom Tancredo at 50/36, Greg Brophy at 48/33, and Mike Kopp at 49/32.
Beauprez’s entry into the field has dramatically reshifted the Republican race for Governor. Our December poll found Tom Tancredo with a 19 point lead over Scott Gessler for the nomination, but now it’s looking like a pretty close three way race. Tancredo still leads, but with only 24% to 20% for Beauprez and 18% for Gessler. Kopp at 8%, Brophy at 7%, Steve House at 3%, and Roni Bell Sylvester at 1% round out the GOP primary field.
“Things are looking up for John Hickenlooper,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if the Senate race remains this close Colorado will be at the center of the national political spotlight for a fourth election cycle in a row.”
PPP surveyed 568 registered voters from March 13th to 16th, including 255 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.1%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-6.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Beauprez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brophy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Gessler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kopp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Bob Beauprez, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Greg Brophy, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Greg Brophy …………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Scott Gessler, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Mike Kopp, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 49%
Mike Kopp………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican
Tom Tancredo, who would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 50%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Baumgardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Gardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Owen Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q17 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Randy
Baumgardner, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 44%
Randy Baumgardner………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q18 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Cory
Gardner, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 42%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Owen
Hill, who would you vote for?
Mark Udall………………………………………………. 43%
Owen Hill ……………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q21 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 8%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 29%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 16%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 33%
Q26 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Q28 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Beauprez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brophy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Gessler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Kopp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q6 Given the choices of Bob Beauprez, Greg
Brophy, Scott Gessler, Steve House, Mike
Kopp, Roni Bell Sylvester, and Tom Tancredo,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Governor this fall?
Bob Beauprez …………………………………………. 20%
Greg Brophy …………………………………………… 7%
Scott Gessler ………………………………………….. 18%
Steve House …………………………………………… 3%
Mike Kopp………………………………………………. 8%
Roni Bell Sylvester…………………………………… 1%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 24%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 18%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Randy Baumgardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Gardner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Owen Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q10 Given the choices of Mark Aspiri, Randy
Baumgardner, Cory Gardner, Owen Hill, Tom
Janich, and Floyd Trujillo, who would you most
like to see as the Republican candidate for
Senate next year?
Mark Aspiri……………………………………………… 3%
Randy Baumgardner………………………………… 15%
Cory Gardner ………………………………………….. 44%
Owen Hill ……………………………………………….. 6%
Tom Janich……………………………………………… 4%
Floyd Trujillo……………………………………………. 0%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 29%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
