Raleigh, N.C. – Attorney General
Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker in a match-up for the 2014
gubernatorial election. Baker has the advantage over Democrats Joe Avellone,
Don Berwick, Juliette Kayyem, and Dan Wolf, but trails Coakley by a 13-point
margin and Mike Capuano by a five-point margin. Baker and Steve Grossman are tied.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Martha Coakley has the highest
favorability rating with 63%. In a seven-way match-up, 41% of Democratic voters
choose Coakley, while 21% pick Mike Capuano. With Capuano taken out of the
race, 57% choose Coakley and 10% pick Grossman.
In the Democratic portion, 71% of women had a favorable opinion of Coakley,
compared to 52% of men. 18-45-year-old voters were the least cohesive group —
28% chose Coakley, but 19% chose Capuano and 19% chose Avellone.
In head-to-head match-ups for Senate, Democratic Sen. Ed Markey led Republicans
Gabriel Gomez, Richard Tisei, and Bill Weld, and tied with Scott Brown.
President Barack Obama has an approval rating of 53-42, which is higher
among women than men. In head-to-head match-ups, women choose Markey instead of
his opponent. A majority of women have a favorable opinion of Coakley. 45% of
men have an unfavorable opinion of her, while 42% are favorable. Men tend to
support Baker in match-ups, while women tend to choose his Democratic opponent.
Nearly 30% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Republicans Brown and
Baker.
“Martha Coakley’s image has recovered a lot from 2010 and she’s looking like
the early front runner for Governor,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Meanwhile voters have mixed feelings about Ed Markey but he
would still trounce Gabriel Gomez in a rematch of their contest from three
months ago.”
PPP surveyed 616 Massachusetts
voters, including 324 usual Democratic primary voters, between September 20-23,
2013. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.0%, and +/- 5.4% for
the Democratic portion. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any
campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .53%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. . 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ed
Markey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Brown?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gabriel Gomez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Tisei?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Weld?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Scott
Brown, who would you vote for?
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 46%
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel
Gomez, who would you vote for?
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 53%
Gabriel Gomez………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Richard
Tisei, who would you vote for?
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 54%
Richard Tisei…………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Bill
Weld, who would you vote for?
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 47%
Bill Weld…………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Avellone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Baker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Berwick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Capuano?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martha Coakley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Grossman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Juliette Kayyem?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Joe Avellone and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 30%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q20 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Don Berwick and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 31%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q21 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mike Capuano and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 42%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q22 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 51%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q23 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Grossman and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 38%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q24 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Juliette Kayyem and Republican
Charlie Baker, who would you vote for?
Juliette Kayyem ………………………………………. 31%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q25 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dan Wolf and Republican Charlie
Baker, who would you vote for?
Dan Wolf ………………………………………………… 31%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q26 In the last Presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 8%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 16%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 41%
Q30 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%
Q31 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Avellone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Berwick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Capuano?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martha Coakley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Grossman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Juliette Kayyem?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q8 Given the choices of Joe Avellone, Don
Berwick, Mike Capuano, Martha Coakley,
Steve Grossman, Juliette Kayyem, and Dan
Wolf, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Governor next year?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 8%
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 4%
Mike Capuano…………………………………………. 21%
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 41%
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 9%
Juliette Kayyem ………………………………………. 1%
Dan Wolf ………………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q9 If Mike Capuano was not a candidate for
Governor next year, who would be you most
like to see as the Democratic candidate?
Joe Avellone …………………………………………… 4%
Don Berwick……………………………………………. 6%
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 57%
Steve Grossman ……………………………………… 10%
Juliette Kayyem ………………………………………. 2%
Dan Wolf ………………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 17%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 6%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 70%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
