Polls

Close Race for Republican Nomination

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – PPP’s monthly look ahead to the 2012 Republican nomination contest finds it as jumbled up as ever, with Mitt Romney at 22%, Mike Huckabee at 21%, Newt Gingrich at 18%, and Sarah Palin at 17%.

Palin is actually the most personally popular of the potential Republican contenders, with 66% seeing her favorably.  She’s followed by Huckabee at 60% and Romney and Gingrich at 57%.  But there continues to be a large disconnect between GOP voters liking Palin and being willing to support her for President and that’s why she continues not to show a lead in the horse race.

There’s been a lot of discussion in the last week, given the results in Delaware, about whether there’s any chance a perceived moderate like Romney could win the Republican primary.  These numbers suggest an interesting path to victory for him.  He’s actually in 4th place with conservatives at 18% with the other three all getting 21-22%.  But he has a wide lead with moderates, getting 33% to 22% for Huckabee with the others in single digits.  If the conservative vote is heavily divided and he can clean up with the moderates, that’s how he’s going to win the nomination.

Palin is leading with one interesting group of voters: those who would like to purge the party of moderates.  She gets 25% with them to 17% for Huckabee, 13% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney.

“We do this poll month after month after month and never really find any separation,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “We’ll have to wait until this year’s election is over before getting more clarity on the 2012 GOP nomination fight.”

PPP surveyed 419 national Republican primary voters from September 10th to 13th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.8%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney who
would you support?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else…………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable…………… .60%
Unfavorable ……….. .14%
Not sure …………….. .26%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q6 Do you think there is a place for moderate
voters in the Republican Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 62%
No …………………………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 Do you think ACORN will steal the election to
keep the Democrats in control of Congress or
not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Conservative…………………………………………… 69%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Related Polls