Raleigh,
N.C. – Wisconsin
voters would pick Hillary Clinton over their state’s own Scott Walker or Paul
Ryan for president in 2016, according to PPP’s latest Wisconsin poll.
Clinton
leads Ryan 51% to 43%, Walker 54% to 41% and Marco Rubio 52% to 38%. She has a
formidable +19 favorability rating, with 56% of voters holding a favorable
opinion to 37% unfavorable. Clinton’s strong numbers stem from her popularity
with moderates (71/20) and independent voters (58/34). Ryan’s favorability is
evenly split at 46%.
In the
GOP primary, Ryan leads with 35% support without Walker included, and Walker
leads with 33% support without Ryan in the mix. In both cases Rubio is a close second
(27% against Walker, 22% against Ryan) and Chris Christie is a distant third at
10%.
“It’s a
sign of how formidable Hillary Clinton would be in 2016 that she has such a big
advantage over Paul Ryan and Scott Walker in their own state,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Wisconsin
voters narrowly approve of President Obama’s job performance, 50% to 48%. Newly
elected Senator Tammy Baldwin has slightly better numbers, with 45% approving
and 40% disapproving, which closely mirrors her margin of victory in 2012.
Former
Senator Joe McCarthy is wildly unpopular, with only 6% holding a favorable view
of him against 45% unfavorable, while 49% were not sure—probably because he
died in 1957. 14% of very conservative voters had a favorable view of McCarthy.
Voters
narrowly oppose allowing same-sex marriage in their state, with 44% in favor
and 46% opposed. There is 71% support for some form of legal recognition of gay
couples—39% support marriage equality while 32% support civil unions. By
15-point margins, voters also support an assault weapons ban (53/38) and
Congress passing stricter gun laws (54/39).
PPP surveyed 1,799 Wisconsin voters, including 679 usual
Republican primary voters and 708 Democratic primary voters, from February 21st to 24th. The
margin of error for the overall sample is +/-2.3%, +/-3.8% for the GOP
portion, and +/-3.7% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Tammy Baldwin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ………………………………………………….. 53%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Wisconsin, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 44%
It should not ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of former US Senator Joe McCarthy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bret Bielema?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Scott
Walker, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 54%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q15 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 5%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 7%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 22%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 35%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q2 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Scott Walker, who would you most like to
see as the GOP candidate for President in
2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 5%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 7%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 0%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 27%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 33%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Russ Feingold, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 11%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Russ Feingold…………………………………………. 25%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 7%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%